Recent Play Details

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8:10 PM ET -- NBA

581 Boston Celtics 
582 Minnesota Timberwolves

Play: UNDER 233.5 (-110)

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at 232 or better 
2% play at 231 or 231.5
1% play at 230 or 230.5

My NBA totals plays are determined by relevant statistical data (using NBA.com's stats for pace and offensive & defensive efficiency), history involving similar games from a situational perspective (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Additional Trends/Angles/Thoughts:

NOTE: I am not concerned with sample size.  I'm looking for current-season, recent performance patterns, especially ones with an average winning margin of at least two possessions (> 6 points).  All trends/angles listed are from the current season only unless otherwise noted.

DELTA POINTS: A team's projected points scored or allowed. Example: We have a game where the favorite is -10 and the total is 230. So, the favorite's Delta Points is 120, while the underdog's Delta Points is 110. A team's Delta Points number should be within a half-point of the team's actual posted team total.

-> The UNDER is 5-0-1 (by 13.4 ppg) when Boston faces a team with a winning record on the road with a total of 230 or higher.  Boston held 5 of its 6 opponents UNDER their Delta Points.

-> The UNDER is 3-0 (by 12.5 ppg) when Minnesota is at home against a non-conference opponent after shooting better than 55% from the field in their previous game.  Minnesota finished UNDER its Delta Points in each game.

-> The UNDER is 7-0 (by 14.4 ppg) when Minnesota is at home off a double-digit win. Minnesota finished UNDER its Delta Points in 6 of the 7 games.

-> The UNDER is 7-0 (by 11.4 ppg) when Minnesota is at home against a non-conference opponent after going Over the total in its previous game. Minnesota finished UNDER its Delta Points in all 7 games.