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St Mary’s (2PM ET TBS) – I have one 5% move in the Round of 64, it’s by far my favorite angle of the first two days and I’ll head over to my home town for this one when the #5 seed St Mary’s Gaels take on the #12 seed VCU Rams in West Region action at the MVP Arena in Albany, New York.

Unfortunately I won’t be at this game in person (I will get to see the winner of this one play in Round of 32 action on Sunday) and the ONLY thing that gave me even the slightest pause before firing this was the fact St Mary’s had to come all the way to Albany for a 2PM ET tip.  It’s a less than ideal travel/tip time for St Mary’s but this is a Friday game which means plenty of time for the Gaels to get acclimated to the time change and I honestly don’t think that ends up being an issue.  Outside of that this is a dream draw for St Mary’s as VCU is a young team that should struggle with how the Gaels like to play.  VCU relies on turnovers to generate offense but St. Mary’s plays a low possession game and turns it over as little as anyone in the country with just 9.6 per game.  VCU comes in hot but the Rams have been hot against an Atlantic 10 Conference that’s as bad as it’s been in recent memory so I see this as a huge step up in class for VCU here.  St Mary’s is EXCELLENT defensively, the Gaels will put the clamps on this VCU offense and it’s going to be a less experienced VCU team up against Randy Bennett who I have as a top five coach in college basketball.  I think VCU is going to REALLY struggle to get good shots and this has the feel of one of those games where St Mary’s scores in the high 50’s, their opponent gets stuck in the 40’s and it’s never really an issue in what ends up being a boring, blowout Gaels win.

VCU’s only hope here for St Mary’s to crack under the Rams pressure defense but I just don’t see it happening.  Bennett is a mastermind, he has a veteran team that can execute a game plan and freshman guard Aidan Mahaney has emerged as one of the best players in the country this season.  Mahaney has the skill/ability to be fine here and veterans like Logan Johnson and Alex Ducas aren’t going to be phased by some ball pressure, even if it’s one of the things VCU does well.  VCU, on the other hand, will likely struggle with St Mary’s defense because I just don’t think this Rams offense is patient enough to work for the correct shot.  VCU is typically trying to push the pace off turnovers (something that’s borderline impossible to do against St Mary’s) and if the Rams do get caught in the half court they shoot it well from three but it’s TOUGH to get clean three point looks against this St Mary’s defense.  VCU might be able to get to the foul line if they can get the ball inside but this is an area the Rams have struggled this season just 270th nationally in free throw shooting.  This projects as a low scoring, low possession game and the oddsmakers are pretty much telling you that’s the case with a total in the low 120’s. VCU missed 8 free throws against Dayton and 9 against St Louis in their two most recent A10 Tournament games and if the Rams aren’t taking advantage of the free ones at the foul line I just don’t see how they keep pace with St Mary’s here.

I also think VCU lacks the discipline necessary to defend this St Mary’s offense. VCU likes to pressure, they like to use their intensity to force turnovers but that’s just not how you beat this St Mary’s team.  St Mary’s is going to easily break any pressure applied and get into half-court offense where the Gaels are happy to run sets and wait for their cutting action to kick in to produce a good shot.  VCU can try to overplay to force a turnover but the likely result there is going to be a pass followed by another pass leading to a good look for St Mary’s.  VCU can try to play more honest defense but that’s easier said than done and nothing I’ve seen out of VCU this season suggests the Rams will be able to do that.  In a low possession game there’s always the possibility St Mary’s is cold and VCU is able to make some tough shots and hang around but I think that’s the least likely option here.  St Mary’s should frustrate VCU considerably in this matchup and as long as the Gaels can avoid a huge scoring drought, they should have a double-digit cushion in this one throughout.  Play on St. Mary’s -4 (-110) for 5% (or 5 units)