Recent Play Details

3% Take Miami (#576)

Memphis was a great pointspread team on the road last year and the year before too.  This year, the Grizz are 13-21 SU, 12-22 ATS in 34 previous road games, consistent money losers.  Memphis as an underdog of +3 or higher?  How about 3-7 ATS, full season; money burners.  Against opponents that are above .500, the Grizz are 5-11 ATS on the highway; again, money burners. 

Since mid-January, on the road against playoff contenders, the Grizzlies have lost SU to the Lakers (twice), Suns, Kings, Warriors, T-Wolves, Cavs, Celtics, Nuggets, Clippers and 76ers.  Their only road win against potential playoff teams over the past TWO MONTHS came against the Mavs without Kyrie or Luka on Monday. 

It’s surely worth noting that the Grizz only pointspread they covered in ANY of those defeats came by a half point at Golden State; six of the last nine ‘step-up’ losses have come by double digit margins.  Still playing without three key contributors (Ja Morant, Brandon Clark and Steven Adams), there’ll be no surprise here if they suffer another double digit defeat tonight. 

Miami has been a lousy home favorite all year, but the betting markets have finally caught up with them – we’re not being asked to lay a big pointspread to back them this evening. And there’s legitimate urgency for the Heat RIGHT NOW.  Jimmy Butler; “We’ve got to string some wins together.  Let’s make it happen.”  Expect a ‘W’ tonight.  Take the Heat

Line Parameter: 3% at -4 or lower, 2% at -4.5 or higher