Recent Play Details

4% UCF (7:00 ET): Let’s build off last night’s success in the NIT (Liberty) with two more winners for Wednesday. Florida did not have a good finish to its regular season as the Gators have dropped 8 of their 12 games including a 69-68 loss in OT to Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament. The downward slide can be directly traced to the loss of Colin Castleton, the team’s leading scorer, rebounder and shot blocker. Castleton’s season ended on Feb 15 with a broken hand and is obviously unavailable here. 

UCF comes into the NIT having dropped five of eight overall. The Knights were eliminated from the AAC Tournament by eventual winner Memphis, but did cover the spread against the Tigers, losing by only five (81-76) as 5.5-point underdogs. I’d say that UCF is due to some positive regression in close games. Note that, in addition to playing Memphis tight, three of the the Knight’s last five losses have been by two points or fewer. They are led by Taylor Hendricks, who led all AAC freshman in points (15.3), rebounds (6.9) and blocks (1.8) per game. 

Though Florida is at home here, it’s easy to see why the sharp money is on UCF given Castleton’s absence and the underdog being due for better results (360th in luck rating). Florida’s only three wins over its L10 games came against Ole Miss, Georgia and LSU, three of the bottom four teams in the SEC.  UCF should come in highly motivated to face a more “prominent” school in their state while I question Florida’s motivation here. I thought the Gators were a little lucky to force OT against Miss St (trailed by 14) and they were also down at the half at home to LSU. Florida was very fortunate that those L2 opponents both finished below 20% from three. UCF will shoot a lot better than that here. Take the points. 4% UCF (Play to Pick)