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3% Under Eintracht Frankfurt/Napoli (4:00 ET): With an 18-point lead at the top of the table, Napoli are well on their way to winning Serie A this season. Now the Italian side looks to qualify for the final eight in the Champions League for the first time in club history. They are certainly in the “catbird’s seat” to do so as they get ready to play the second leg at home Wednesday, already up 2-0 on aggregate. Napoli really dominated that first leg in Germany (2.8 to 0.4 xG), which saw Eintracht Frankfurt down to 10 men. 

So Frankfurt is really “up against it” heading into today’s second leg. They’ll of course be without Randal Kolo Muani, a star striker, as he picked up the red card in that first leg. Frankfurt, who had a miracle run in last season’s Europa League, just doesn’t seem well equipped to make another run as the attack has also seemingly dropped off considerably in domestic action as well. The German side finished with 0.86 xG, 1.18 xG and 0.53 xG in its last three Bundesliga matches. The five shots created in the first leg vs. Napoli were Frankfurt’s fewest in any Champions League match this season. Muani’s likely replacement (Rafael Borre) represents a big drop off in production. 

I cashed the Under (2.5) in that first leg. For this second leg, there’s the thought process that Frankfurt needs to “open things up” due to being down 2-0 on aggregate. But Napoli is unlikely to let them. We saw the Italian side “put the clamps down” in Germany, which is nothing new as they’ve allowed 0.8 xG or fewer in nine straight matches across all competitions. Napoli can afford to play it conservatively as they did over the final 20 minutes of that first leg. Another Under. 3% Under Eintracht Frankfurt/Napoli 2.5 (Play to -110)