Recent Play Details

4% San Diego State (3:10 ET): I’m very cognizant of the history between 5 and 12 seeds in this Tournament. In fact, I’m playing a pair of 12-seeds plus the points. But this is a matchup that definitely favors the 5-seed. It’s a pace battle with San Diego State (252nd in adjusted tempo) taking on Charleston (29th). Charleston loves to get out in transition, but you won’t find a better team in America at limiting transition opportunities than SDSU, who are also Top 10 in defensive efficiency and Top 14 overall at KenPom. I look for the Aztecs to slow down the pace, limit those transition opportunities and win comfortably on Thursday. 

I do bank on Charleston being a “popular” upset pick here. After all, the Cougars did spend time in the Top 25 early in the season. But they didn’t even end up winning the regular season title in the CAA (Hofstra did) and failed to crack the Top 70 in my own power ratings. I think it speaks volumes that the majority of bets have come in on the Cougars for this Round of 64 matchup, yet the early line movement went in the opposite direction. That’s a sign that sharp money prefers the favorite in this one. 

San Diego State is both the regular season and tournament champion out of the Mountain West. I know the MWC has an ominous recent history in the Big Dance, but the Aztecs can be the team to help break it (I expect Utah State to do it first!) due to the matchup advantages listed about. In addition to being able to stop teams in transition (19.8% rate allowed), SDSU is #7 in the country at defending the three-point line (29.3% allowed). Offensively, they had three different leading scorers in the MWC Tournament and had seven different players have team-highs in scoring during the regular season. 4% San Diego State (Play to -7)