Recent Play Details

3% West Virginia ML (12:15 ET): Throughout the year, I’ve labeled both of these teams as being “underrated.” But I’ve got West Virginia rated higher and expect them to advance. It says a lot about the Mountaineers that they didn’t even have to “sweat” Selection Sunday and are a 9-seed despite going 7-11 SU in conference play. Might that conference record actually be a GOOD thing? The last five at-large teams with a conference record of 4+ games under .500 all won their first round matchup! Having survived the Big XII gauntlet, WVU (5th in strength of schedule) is certainly battle-tested. 

I rode the Mountaineers to victories in both their regular season finale (89-81 over Kansas State) and their opening round game in the Big XII Tournament (78-62 over Texas Tech). As I said in the analysis for that Texas Tech game, it speaks volumes about the respect WVU carries with the oddsmakers that they closed -5.5 against the #11 team in the country (Kansas State at the time), even if the game was in Morgantown. Similarly, it caught my eye that WVU opened as the favorite here, despite being the lower seed. They also took early sharp money. Perhaps that’s because the Mountaineers are not only 16-3 SU as a favorite this year, but also closed on a 5-1 ATS run. 

I think WVU matches up well with Maryland in the sense they can handle the defensive pressure Maryland will look to employ and, defensively, the Mountaineers don’t give up much in the post (something Maryland relies on offensively). WVU also has the offensive edge in this matchup, ranking 15th in the country in efficiency. Maryland had some real “stinkers” in the regular season, like a 35-point loss to Michigan and 27-point loss to UCLA. They are just 1-10 SU as dogs and closed with just one win (over Minnesota) their L4 games. Play the moneyline (just to be safe). 3% West Virginia ML (Play to -155)