Recent Play Details

3% Utah State (1:40 ET): One of the things I value quite a bit this time of year is a team’s defensive efficiency rating. And I regret to inform fans of the Missouri Tigers that their team is an ugly 178th in defensive efficiency entering the Tournament! That’s not just the worst defensive rating among all power conference teams in the Tournament, it’s eighth worst overall! All seven teams in this Tourney with worse defensive ratings than Mizzou are seeded 13 or lower and five of them are 15 or 16 seeds.

Utah State is a more respectable 64th in defensive efficiency and they are also 18th in the KenPom ratings, which is very high for a 10-seed obviously. So I’m not the least bit surprised to see the Aggies favored here. By the way, Utah State is 21-8 ATS as a favorite this season and 45-25 ATS as a favorite the L3 seasons! USU's main exploit is their three-point shooting, which is top five in the country at 39.3%. They too can score (78.6 PPG).

That three-point shooting will be a problem for a Missouri team that allows a lot of unguarded jumpers. The Tigers got away with that in the SEC, a league where seemingly every team struggled to shoot the three. Missouri is only 51st in the KenPom ratings and also #9 in luck, so their record should probably be worse than it is. The Tigers really benefited from going 11-1 SU in games decided by seven points or less, including a perfect 3-0 SU in OT. I think their luck runs out Thursday. I'm taking Utah State on the moneyline. 3% Utah State ML (Play to -145)