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4% Brighton -1.0 (3:30 ET): Laying -1.5 against Crystal Palace burned me last Saturday as Manchester City were only able to prevail by a 1-0 margin. But despite the lone goal coming from an Erling Haaland penalty (in the 78th minute), City did create 2.19 xG in the match compared to only 0.19 for Palace. My read on Palace has not changed one iota in the last couple of days as the Eagles are still winless in the 2023 calendar year (six losses, four draws), leaving them only three points clear of the relegation zone. Per Understat, Palace still have the third fewest xPts (expected points) in the league entering this matchweek. 

While an argument can be made that Palace should be lower in the table, there’s also an argument that Brighton & Hove Albion ought to be higher. Despite having played the fewest matches (24) of any side in the Premier League, Brighton is third in xPts and thus “should” be contending for a spot in next year’s Champions League. But some poor luck has them currently seventh in the table with 39 points, nine back of the top four. This fixture is a must win if the Seagulls are to qualify for European football next season, Champions League or otherwise. They drew with Leeds last Saturday, 2-2, twice blowing a one-goal advantage. Brighton were 1.51 to 0.60 on xG, so they should have gotten the full three points. Since Roberto De Zerbi took over back on 10/1, Brighton are averaging 1.98 xG per 90 minutes. It was just two weeks ago that they thrashed West Ham 4-0 here at the Amex. 

Crystal Palace have been somewhat of a “bogey” team for Brighton as the last seven A23 Derbies have resulted in five draws and two wins for Palace. But the last one, a 1-1 draw on Feb 11th, should have been a Brighton win as “human error” by VAR wrongly disallowed a first half goal for the Seagulls, who dominated the match with 75% possession and 17 shots. Even with Wilfred Zaha back, Palace remains completely inept offensively, not only failing to score a single goal, but also failing to put a single shot on target in the L3 matches. It’s been nearly two decades since any Premier League side went three straight matches w/o a single shot on target. There exists a 12-point gap between these two sides, but really it should be MUCH larger. I love Brighton to win by more than one goal Wednesday. (A one-goal win would be a push). 4% Brighton -1.0 (Play to -170)