Recent Play Details

10:10 PM ET -- NBA

571 Milwaukee Bucks 
572 Phoenix Suns

Play: UNDER 232.5 (-110)

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at 231.5 or better 
2% play at 230.5 or 231
1% play at 229.5 or 230

My NBA totals plays are determined by relevant statistical data (using NBA.com's stats for pace and offensive & defensive efficiency), history involving similar games from a situational perspective (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Additional Trends/Angles/Thoughts:

-> UNDER is 3-0 this season (by 15.2 ppg) when Milwaukee is off a game in which it shot better than 56% from the field.

-> UNDER is 5-0 this season (by 8.7 ppg) when Milwaukee is playing without rest on the road.

-> UNDER is 7-0 this season (by 5.1 ppg) when Milwaukee is on the road against a team with a win percentage above 50% but below 60%.

-> UNDER is 6-1-1 this season (by 7.25 ppg) when Phoenix is at home seeking same-season revenge for a road loss.

-> LEAGUE-WIDE: Play UNDER when the total is 230 or higher and one team is outscoring its opponents by 3 or more points per game on the season and is coming off back-to-back games in which it allowed 115 points or more.
24-9-1 (72.7%) over the last 2 seasons. 14-5-1 (73.7%) this season.