Recent Play Details

4% Take the LA Lakers (#567)

The Lakers lost three straight games in early February before the All-Star Break.  Since that three-game skid (which ended well over a month ago), LA has bounced back from every defeat with a win and cover in their next game: 4-0 SU and ATS.  That stretch included a road win at Golden State and an 18-point victory over the same Pelicans team they’ll see tonight.  Right now, LA off a loss = Bet-On.  And with Anthony Davis coming off a subpar showing in a home loss to the Knicks on Sunday (“I played terrible….I didn’t do my job tonight.”), a visit to face his former team is an optimal bounce-back spot for him AND his teammates.

While LA has been ‘bet-on’ off a loss, New Orleans has been ‘bet-against’ following a rare victory, like the one they notched against the exhausted (last game of a six-game road trip) Blazers on Sunday.  Since beating Philly on December 30th for their fifth straight victory, the Pelicans are 2-8 SU/ATS following a win.  Both wins and covers came in back-2-back games before the All-Star Break.  Consecutive solid showings for the Pelicans have been few and far between.

These are two teams headed in opposite directions, even with Lebron’s injury keeping him sidelined.  LA is 7-3 SU/ATS in their last ten games, a hungry team making a playoff push.  New Orleans is 10-23 SU in their last 33 games, a team that has struggled with injuries and attrition for months.  Their full season-long records are identical: both teams enter tonight at 33-35 SU, fighting for a playoff berth.  The point spread is sitting near pick ‘em – two supposedly even teams. 

I’m not buying that argument.  LA is clearly the superior squad RIGHT NOW, whether Brandon Ingram (questionable) suits up for the Pelicans or not.  And with LA off a loss vs. NO off a win, I have no hesitation backing the Lakers RIGHT NOW in this near pick ‘em price range in a game where the point spread could jump around a fair bit between now and the opening tip, based on the latest injury info.  Take the Lakers

Line Parameter: 4% at -2 or better; 3% at -2.5 or higher