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Hofstra (7PM ET ESPNU) – Princeton gets it done for a win in our only play on Selection Sunday.  Monday is a rare day off with no games but the NCAA Postseason gets underway in full force on Tuesday and we will head to the NIT where the Rutgers Scarlet Knights take on the Hofstra Pride at Jersey Mike’s Arena in Piscataway, New Jersey. 

The NIT is always a tricky handicap because motivation, especially in the earlier rounds, is one of the biggest determining factors.  I’ve also found in the past certain home courts don’t have the same advantage as they do in the regular season and I think Rutgers is negatively impacted by both of those things here.  Rutgers has to be disappointed, the Scarlet Knights looked to be all but in the field on February 26th after a win at Penn State and it looked like Rutgers had secured their bid for a second time by beating Michigan in the opening round of the Big Ten Tournament.  Rutgers hung with Purdue every step of the way in a Big Ten quarterfinal game losing 70-65 so, while the Scarlet Knights were on the bubble, I have to imagine they expected inclusion into the Field of 68. It turned out that wasn’t the case, annually we see a team that “should have gotten in” get left out and vice versa and the casualty this season was Rutgers.  Based on where this team was at the beginning of February not reaching the NCAA Tournament has to be viewed as a massive disappointment for this team. I have a hunch the fan base probably feels this way as well and I’ll be surprised if the RAC is sold out and has its usual hostile atmosphere for this game.  This line is being made with Rutgers typical home court in mind that alone makes this an inflated number here.  Throw in the fact Hofstra might care about this matchup more than Rutgers does and I think the touchdown head start plays well in a game Hofstra could very well win outright. 

This was a VERY good Hofstra team that got very little publicity this season. Hofstra finished tied at the top of the Colonial Athletic Association with Charleston (who people can’t get enough of as their 12/5 upset) and managed to go 24-9 with superstar Aaron Estrada missing a handful of games.  Estrada is an absolute stud, he’s one of the top scorers in the country at 20.5 points per game and the NIT is an excellent tournament for him to showcase his talent and give Hofstra some of the recognition they deserve.  Charleston spent a good portion of the season in the Top 25 so I don’t think Hofstra is disappointed about not winning the CAA because they had to know that would have been a tall task.  Hofstra legend Speedy Claxton took over as head coach last season, the Pride went 21-11 but weren’t invited to a postseason tournament so I think an NIT bid in Claxton’s second season will be viewed as a nice step forward. Hofstra has also “played up” to competition under Claxton, last season they took Houston to overtime and lost to Maryland by 2 before eventually upsetting nationally ranked Arkansas. This season Hofstra started the year with wins over Princeton and Iona, they beat Charleston when the Cougars were #18 in the country and since Estrada has been back and healthy the Pride are a ridiculous 16-2 in their last 18 games.  Hofstra is playing their best basketball at present and the Pride have the shot makers to beat Rutgers elite defense.  Hofstra is 21st nationally in field goal percentage and Estrada can score on anyone.  Rutgers relies on defense and rebounding to win games but Hofstra is good enough offensively to negate some of their advantage and I think that keeps Hofstra in the game here.

It's also important to point out Rutgers style of play requires a great deal of effort and I’m unsure the Scarlet Knights bring that top effort in a clear let down spot here.  Rutgers DOES NOT shoot the ball well, they need second chance points and defensive plays to succeed and they won’t get that by going through the motions.  If Rutgers comes out and plays their best game they can cover this number but that’s unlikely.  What’s more likely is Hofstra coming to play and Rutgers either needs to will their way to victory (which means they probably don’t cover) or they simply bow out of a tournament they never wanted to be in.  Play on Hofstra +7.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)