Recent Play Details

3% Liberty (9:00 ET): Let’s not neglect the NIT this week as there’s always some value to be had in this Tournament. Liberty must get over the disappointment of not making the NCAA Tournament after winning the regular season title in the ASun. As the 1-seed, the Flames advanced to the Finals of their conference tournament, only to be ousted with a 67-66 loss to Kennesaw State. That was a game where Liberty shot just 21.7% (5 of 23) from three, which is well below their season average (34.0%). It also didn’t help that Kennesaw State hit 40% (6 of 15) from behind the arc. 

The Flames went 26-8 SU overall this season and only lost back to back games once, that being back in November. Remember that until the Final Four, NIT games are played at campus sites. That’s crucial for Liberty, who is a 2-seed and thus would have home court advantage for at least the first two rounds. The Flames were 16-1 SU and 12-3-1 ATS at home this season, winning here by an average of 24.1 points per game! Now that’s skewed by the weaker competition in the ASun, but I still think they beat Villanova here. 

Villanova made a bit of a late run as it finally got healthy, but it wasn’t enough as the Wildcats were bested in the Big East Tournament, 87-74 by Creighton. It’s a new era at ‘Nova with Jay Wright gone and though they were better down the stretch, I don’t trust the Wildcats here and sense they’ll be the less interested team. This game is going to be played at a snail’s pace as both teams are outside the top 300 in adjusted tempo. The fact that Liberty has the higher defensive efficiency rating (51st vs. 90th) and also shoots 50% overall at home is key. Lay the points. 3% Liberty (Play to -5)