Recent Play Details

3% Take Michigan (#686)

While bettors fixate on which of these two teams is less motivated, I’m going to focus on the matchup itself.  That said, Toledo had a chance for their first tourney appearance in 40+ years and came up short against Kent in the MAC Championship Game.  After going all out – three games in three days in Cleveland this past weekend, culminating in a tight title game loss  -- followed by a road trip to Ann Arbor on short notice, I’m not convinced we’re going to see the Rockets ‘A’ game here.

The Rockets have feasted on the weak all season, not a team we can trust to step up in class.  Since December 1st, they’ve been underdogs of +3 or higher only twice – a double digit loss at Marshall and a double digit loss at Kent.  That’s not exactly a track record worthy of support.

Look at the total here, north of 160.  That tells us a lot about Toledo’s defensive acumen – or lack thereof. Michigan has just faced Indiana (twice), Wisconsin (twice), Rutgers (twice), Michigan State and Illinois in their last eight games.  Each and every one of those teams is ‘head and shoulders’ better than Toledo on the defensive end of the floor.  Throw in solid free throw shooting from the home favorite – they can close this pointspread cover out on the free throw line – and the Wolverines are a clear choice for this bettor against ‘fade only’ Toledo on Tuesday Night. Take Michigan

Line Parameter: 3% at -8 or lower, 2% at -8.5 or higher