Recent Play Details

5% Drake (7:25 ET): This is the first round matchup I dreamed of and we got it. Certainly, most (if not all) of you are aware of the history between 5 and 12 seeds in the NCAA Tournament. At least one 12 seed has advanced to the Round of 32 in 32 of the previous 37 tourneys. This includes a pair last year with New Mexico State over UConn and Richmond over Iowa). What immediately drew me to this particular 5-12 matchup is that the 5-seed is Miami, an admitted nemesis of mine this season. But the bottom line is the Hurricanes are - easily - the weakest 5-seed in the draw. While “The U” has spent a large portion of this season ranked in the AP/Coaches Top 25, I do not consider them a Top 35 team in America. 

This number is short, even by 5 vs. 12 standards, but it opened where I expected it. Also, let’s point out the fact that 1st round favorites of -1 to -3 are a money-burning 38-62-4 ATS since 2009 in the Tournament. You already know I don’t like Miami, but on the flip side, I really like this Drake team. Champions of the Missouri Valley, the Bulldogs are 27-7 SU on the year and have lost only once in their last 14 games. They are also one of the oldest (read: experienced) teams in the entire field of 68. 

Just to clarify my position on Miami, the Hurricanes rank 132nd in defensive efficiency over at KenPom. Teams outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency just don’t last long in this tournament. Drake is 44th in defensive efficiency, so that’s a big edge to the underdog in that regard. Even worse for Miami is that leading rebounder (and third leading scorer) Norchad Omier went down with an ankle injury in the team’s ACC semifinal loss to Duke Friday. Even if he plays, he won’t be at 100%. Yes, the Missouri Valley is not as strong as the ACC, but the ACC was really down this season. Drake shoots it at 37.3% from three and you can look for them to slow the tempo here. Miami is simply not the same team outside of Coral Gables. This has all the makings of a “classic” 5-12 upset. Take the points, just to be safe. 5% Drake (Play to -1).