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Princeton (4:10PM ET TNT) – Princeton gets it done for a win in our only play on Selection Sunday and I’ll start with the Tigers in the NCAA Tournament Round of 64 as the #15 seed Princeton Tigers take on the #2 seed Arizona Wildcats in South Region action at the Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California.

This is equal parts a fade of Arizona as it is a play on Princeton but I think I can make a decent case for Princeton against the number from both angles here.  As far as Princeton is concerned this is a Tigers team that takes good shots and makes them at a high percentage and Arizona has let these types of teams hang around all season.  Princeton can rebound, the Tigers rank 16th nationally in total rebounding this season so, while Arizona will still have the advantage here as one of the elite rebounding teams in the country I think Princeton is good enough to not get killed in this department which should allow the Tigers to hang around in this game.  Princeton has shown the ability to play at different speeds, the Tigers have won games in the 50’s this season but they also swept a Cornell team in Ivy League play that plays extremely fast.  Arizona likes to get up and down, the Wildcats are 4th nationally in points per game and 3rd nationally in field goal percentage so Arizona can get easy buckets and get them in a hurry. Princeton’s willingness to play this style should actually help Princeton as Arizona has been VERY sloppy at times and WILL turn the ball over in this environment.  Arizona ranks 291st nationally in turnovers and I think the Tigers ability to minimize second chance opportunities and beat the Wildcats to the occasional loose ball will keep the underdog in the game here.

Arizona won the Pac 12 Tournament which included a win over UCLA but the Bruins didn’t have Jaylen Clark in that game and I think that run has the Wildcats massively inflated here.  I think that inflates Arizona because the PAC 12 is really not strong at all this season, Arizona State barely got in, Oregon missed the tournament all together and the rest of this conference is full of teams that are arguably worse basketball teams than Princeton.  Arizona failed to cover a big number in the PAC 12 Tournament against a dreadful Stanford team and lost outright at home as a 12.5 point favorite against Arizona State. Arizona was favored by -12.5 the game prior against Colorado and won by 10 and a couple games before that Arizona managed to lose at Stanford as a 7.5 point road favorite.  Sure, Arizona has some blowouts mixed in but this is also an Arizona team with losses to Oregon, Washington State and Utah which just further proves the mortality of this Arizona team that’s being propped up as “elite” based on their high (probably too high) seed.  Because of THAT, Arizona comes out laying over two touchdowns on a neutral floor against a team they know nothing about and I have that number about 3-4 points off where it should be.  I think Arizona will be FORTUNATE to win this game by 10, Princeton will score in transition, and I think the Tigers can hang around here even if Arizona gets out to a nice lead.  Princeton has blown a couple games this season by not being able to close out opponents at the foul line but they will more than likely be playing from behind in this one and I think that suits this Tigers team.

I also like that Princeton’s focal point is a 6’8” forward that is going to be able to bang around inside with the Arizona front line.  Princeton is going to play through 6’8” forward Tosan Evbuomwan, he attempted 31 shots for Princeton across the two Ivy League Tournament games and went for 21 points in both games.  Evbuomwan is also an excellent rebounder, he pairs up front with Caden Pierce and I’m willing to bet money on this duo being able to deter some of the Arizona front court onslaught to keep Princeton in this game.  Let’s assume for a second Princeton is overmatched here, they CAN run and I think they could hang around in the 10-15 point range even if they spend this entire game behind.  In my opinion there’s a huge difference between +14.5 (what we are getting here) and +10 or +11 (what the number probably should be) and it’s enough for me to take the number and take my chances that the Tigers compete.  Play on Princeton +14.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)