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Princeton (12PM ET ESPN2) – It’s a Championship Saturday split and it’s on to Selection Sunday where we look to finish a massive Conference Tournament run with a BEST BET in the Ivy League Championship Game when the Princeton Tigers take on the Yale Bulldogs at Jadwin Gymnasium in Princeton, New Jersey.

A lot of sites are listing this as “Yale at Princeton” due to Yale being the higher seed but that’s absolutely not the case as Princeton is the host of this tournament this season so this game is actually a Princeton “home game” at Jadwin Gym.  I got burned going against Yale yesterday but I feel like that had more to do with Cornell playing a bad half (and Yale shooting out of their minds from three) than it did Yale being THAT much better so I’m happy to jump in catching three with a more balanced Princeton team on their home floor here.  Yale is a reasonably good shooting team but the Bulldogs were a furnace yesterday going 10 for 16 from three.  Yale hit 14 threes against Princeton in the first meeting so I suppose it's possible Yale continues to hit every single shot, but I also think it’s equally possible the Bulldogs cool off and if that’s the case I think Princeton ends up with a nice advantage here.  A quick glance at the box score of the most recent meeting shows a 10 point Yale win but that was a game that went to overtime with Princeton leading by 19 at one point in the second half.  Princeton turned it over 18 times in that game to Yale turning it over just five and still arguably should have won.  I think Princeton is a worse matchup for Yale than Cornell is and I love this spot for Princeton “at home” with a tournament bid on the line. 

Going back to my play on Cornell yesterday, it’s not that Cornell was a “bad” matchup it was an “all or nothing” matchup and unfortunately it was a “nothing” day for the Big Red.  I’ve watched a ton of Cornell basketball this season in addition to seeing them play in person and the reality is the Big Red need to make shots to have success.  That sounds like an obvious statement, the point of basketball is to put the ball in the basket, but specifically if Cornell is missing shots they aren’t able to set up their press after a made basket. THAT is what killed Cornell in the second half yesterday, the first half was relatively even with Yale going nuts from three but Cornell shot a dismal 33.3 percent from the field including 8/30 from three.  All the misses allowed Yale to get a rebound, get up the court and get an open look which the Bulldogs hit time after time leading to a 20 point blowout win.  I doubt that happens here, Princeton gave up 93 points in the most recent meeting but some of that was due to overtime and the Tigers were MUCH better at guarding the three point line.  Princeton literally coughed up that win (with the 18 turnovers), that’s an area where the Tigers MUST be better in this game but Princeton handled the ball well against Penn yesterday and I’m hoping they can continue to play focused in the biggest spot of the year.  Princeton is 12th nationally in total rebounding so Yale likely won’t have the edge on the glass like they did against Cornell.  Yale is essentially going to have to go on the road and shoot the ball well to win and I just don’t think the Bulldogs should be favored under those circumstances here.

Princeton was 10-3 on their home floor this season and opened this tournament with a decisive win over Penn.  The margin between the Top 4 in the Ivy League this year was razor thin and all of these teams were better at home than on the road so I do think Princeton gets a bump based on the fact they are hosting this tournament.  I make the number a pick, I think the two regular season meetings (deceiving because Princeton should have won on this floor) and yesterday’s performance against Cornell (deceiving because Cornell was just awful) have inflated this number here.  I think Princeton has just as good of a chance to win this game and I’ll grab the points in one that should cash either way.  Play on Princeton +3.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)