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Texas (6PM ET ESPN) – Championship Saturday rolls on and we head to the Big 12 in a matchup we cashed in a week ago today when the Texas Longhorns battle the Kansas Jayhawks in the Big 12 Tournament Championship Game at the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri.

I can live with the losses on Arkansas and St Peter’s, I loved both plays and in both we ran into a half where our side couldn’t hit water if they fell out of a boat.  It’s the fact that I left Texas off my card on Friday that kills me, I’ve been saying all year that Texas (and Baylor I know) are the best teams in the Big 12 and I didn’t fire on the Longhorns laying a bucket to a TCU team that was clearly inferior on a neutral floor.   I didn’t come here to rant and complain, the reason I bring it up is it’s relevant to today’s handicap because the ONLY thing that kept Texas off my card yesterday was Timmy Allen not playing.  I wasn’t sure if this was known or not but I got that news early and the mistake was thinking that it truly mattered.  Allen is a great player but Texas is loaded with great players, when I saw Texas play a couple weeks ago with CT Bets we were joking that we didn’t even really know who started for Texas because they have 7-8 guys that all could/should be starters. One of those guys is Dylan Disu, he’s only averaged 19.1 minutes per game this season but I love him getting extended minutes because I think he might be Texas best all around player. Disu is tremendous at the defensive end and his 58.8% from the field leads the team.  I still think Texas is the best team in this league, I expect plenty of Longhorns fans to show up so I don’t think there’s a huge home court here for Kansas and I love Texas catching a bucket on a neutral floor here. 

No one is talking about Kansas from an injury standpoint but this is a Jayhawks team down their coach and potentially without one of their top guards with Kevin McCullar Jr questionable for this game.  McCullar has dealt with back problems all season and played just 12 minutes in the win over Iowa State.  It’s also notable that McCullar hasn’t been very effective in either of the Big 12 Tournament games so far so it’s possible he’s playing through the injury and is a liability if he’s on the floor here.  It’s common knowledge that Bill Self is out for this tournament, it hasn’t mattered in a couple of “cruise control” matchups but this is bound to be a tighter game and not having Self to lead the charge might actually matter here.  I wouldn’t adjust my number on it but Self has a knack for rallying his troops that makes him one of the best to ever roam the sideline. Texas just throttled Kansas a week ago in a game we cashed a 4% play, I’ll admit it was a horrible spot for Kansas but I’m just not sure this spot is that much better.  I still think this is a very hungry Texas team looking to make amends for letting a Big 12 regular season title slip away and what better way to do that than knock off Big 12 perennial power Kansas here.

From a matchup perspective not having Allen is a blow to Texas on the interior but I think the guard play from the Longhorns is their path to victory in this game.  Disu won’t score like Allen does but he takes good shots and Texas is going to need to knock shots down on the perimeter here as opposed to challenging Kansas elite interior defense.  McCullar being out or compromised hurts Kansas in that area and Texas could easily shoot their way to a win as the Longhorns have a Top 50 offense and have guys like Marcus Carr and Sir’Jabari Rice that are more than capable of getting hot on the perimeter.  Texas was 6 for 21 from three a week ago and buried Kansas 75-59, I think the Longhorns are well overdue for a good shooting performance and I think they get it in a huge spot here. 

In the end I’m going to put my money on what I’ve been saying all season that Texas is the best team in this conference and there’s still reasons to go against Kansas.  I’ve done well to not fade Kansas with some of the lesser teams in this conference but Kansas lost to all the top teams (Texas, Kansas State, TCU and Baylor) once this season. Kansas is not invincible, they shouldn’t be more than a PICK here so I’ll grab the bucket head start with a Texas team that I expect to win here.  Play on Texas +2 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)