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Arkansas (7PM ET SEC Network) – We bounce back in a monster way as Wake Forest, SMU, Kent State and Marist all get it done for a 4-0 sweep.  That’s now a 21-6 run on our last 27 plays, we are RED HOT at the right time and I’m going to step out in the SEC Tournament with a 5% MAX BET when the Arkansas Razorbacks battle the #18 Texas A&M Aggies at the Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. 

I’ve been saying for months that at some point I’d be willing to “buy” this Arkansas team and I’m now ready to jump in.  Arkansas is a FAR better team with Nick Smith Jr in the lineup and I don’t think that’s been fully accounted for because the Razorbacks lost games to really good teams to close out the regular season.  Smith has played actual minutes the past six games, he’s scored double figures in all six and gives Arkansas the shooting threat that this Razorbacks team has missed dearly this season.  It would have been nice to see Arkansas get over the hump in one of those final regular season games against Alabama, Tennessee or Kentucky but if they had the Razorbacks would likely be favored here.  Arkansas did get it done yesterday against Auburn (despite not playing their best ball) and so now we get the Razorbacks with some momentum against a Texas A&M team that might lose a little of their juice having not played in a week.  These two teams split during the regular season but one was a double digit Arkansas win and the other was a game Arkansas led most of the way and blew late so the Razorbacks (in my opinion) were the more impressive team across the two games. What’s most notable there is Nick Smith Jr. didn’t play in the first one and played just four minutes in the second one so Arkansas was arguably the better team but what’s not up for debate is they played those games without their best player.  Arkansas gutted out a win over Auburn yesterday in a game where they turned it over a ton and couldn’t buy an outside shot.  Neither of those things come as a surprise, Arkansas hasn’t shot it well all season and averages 12.5 turnovers per game but I expect the Razorbacks to trend upward in both departments with Smith in the lineup.  The bottom line here is Arkansas is underrated based on their full season numbers now that Smith is back, I think this Razorbacks team is ready to break out and I won’t be at all surprised if they win this tournament, starting with a win here. 

Arkansas amazingly won the first meeting between these two teams despite attempting 20 less shots than Texas A&M.  Arkansas got to the line 28 times but shot half as many free throws in the return matchup (at College Station) and that’s probably the reason Arkansas didn’t sweep the regular season series.  I can’t stress enough the importance of Smith, he’s likely an NBA lottery pick and he does a lot of the things Arkansas hasn’t done well as a team this season so, in theory, the Razorbacks should only continue to get better with him in the lineup.  Arkansas is 28th nationally in field goal percentage, when the Razorbacks can get out, run and get to the rim they are as good as any so Smith adding a legitimate perimeter threat should further open things up for this Arkansas team.  I have these two teams about even on the boards and the regular season matchups were relatively even so Arkansas won’t have a big edge here like they did yesterday but they also aren’t going to get bullied on the glass by Texas A&M.  Arkansas key in this tournament is going to be ramping up the intensity on defense, they did just enough in that department yesterday but I could see a better effort today with what is now a high profile opponent in ranked Texas A&M. Arkansas is excellent at contesting/blocking shots and Texas A&M struggles at times with shot selection and knocking down jumpers so I don’t think this is the best matchup for the Aggies. Neither of these teams are going to win a shot making competition, if this turns into an athletic competition I think it favors Arkansas and the wild card is Smith who has yet to even show his hand against Texas A&M this year.

I’m ready to ride Arkansas, I love them in this spot and if they win here I’ll probably ride this team the rest of the weekend (line value permitting).  For those that have followed me for years you will remember I’ve been a big Musselman guy since the Nevada days, he was always going to get the best out of this team at some point and I think it’s going to be in the SEC Tournament.  Play on Arkansas +1 (-110) for 5% (or 5 units)