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Marist (7PM ET ESPN Plus) – Wake Forest comes back to cover and I’m going to take that gift and reinvest it to take another shot on Thursday in the MAAC Tournament when the Marist Red Foxes take on the Quinnipiac Bobcats at Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City, New Jersey. 

I’ve been anti-Quinnipiac all season, I cashed a 5% with Marist the first time these two teams played this season in a game the Red Foxes covered easily and should have won and I love them in the “quick turnaround” spot here.  Marist drew the “day off” after their win over Manhattan on Tuesday so I’m not worried about the fatigue and have the benefit of having a game under their belt at Boardwalk Hall against a Quinnipiac team that hasn’t played since beating Marist in their regular season finale.  I put little stock into that loss for Marist because the Red Foxes tried to run up and down the court with Iona two days earlier which was always a recipe for disaster and simply isn’t Marist’s game.  Marist ended up with little to nothing to gain from the Quinnipiac game so it doesn’t surprise me that the Red Foxes didn’t turn in their best effort in the regular season finale.  Prior to that Marist had been rolling, the Red Foxes won back to back games over Niagara and Manhattan and played a nice game on the road at Siena prior to that getting a cover in a hard fought loss  Boardwalk Hall has profiled as an “UNDER” venue since the MAAC moved the tournament there and this season has been no exception as no game exceeded 122 points in regulation on Tuesday and the Iona game stayed under yesterday.  There’s some sharp money coming in on the UNDER here as well and, while I don’t have an opinion on that, I do acknowledge it and if this does profile as another UNDER the +5.5 points Marist is catching are all the more valuable here. 

Marist coach John Dunne has been a staple of MAAC basketball for two decades and his signature style is something I think will play well in a venue where scoring seems to be at a premium.  Dunne was the head coach at St. Peter’s for 12 seasons prior to his move to Marist, these are both programs where it’s tough to recruit so what Dunne has done to combat that is recruit guys that defend and hustle insanely hard.  Because “beggars can’t be choosers” Dunne will often take guys that are great defensively and coach defense while letting the offense figure out itself.  For that reason Dunne’s teams are NEVER great offensively but they can really wear teams down on the defensive end and that type of play also tends to work everywhere which is why it doesn’t surprise me that Marist was ready to play the other night and Manhattan wasn’t.  Dunne will typically make sure he’s got one guy that can really score and make that person the focal point of the offense.  This season that guy is Patrick Gardner, at 6’11” he’s Marist’s biggest post threat but Gardner is a decent shooter and prefers playing away from the basket.  Gardner will get his, he had 27 in the loss to Quinnipiac last week and it really comes down to someone else on Marist stepping up as the complimentary option. That doesn’t always happen, which is why Marist finished last in the MAAC this season, but the Red Foxes ran decent offense against Quinnipiac in both meetings so I think it’s possible that happens again here.  Marist was hot for a half in Tuesday’s win and the Red Foxes have the advantage of having played on this court so it’s possible things are running smoother for the Red Foxes out of the gate than they are for the Bobcats.  Quinnipiac hasn’t been good as a favorite this season and the Bobcats have been outscored in the second half in seven of their past eight games so I have a hard time believing Quinnipiac comes into AC cold and just blows Marist out here.

Marist against Quinnipiac the first time around was a successful 5% for me and I’m going to attack this matchup again here.  I think Marist has a great chance to win this game and if they don’t I’ll be shocked if Quinnipiac pulls away.  Play on Marist +5.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)