Recent Play Details

SMU (3PM ET ESPNU) – A busy Championship Thursday wears on with a pair of midday bets and the first one takes us over to the American Athletic Conference where the SMU Mustangs take on the Central Florida Knights at Dickies Arena in Fort Worth, Texas.

I know SMU has had a less than impressive season and finished losing five of six but I just don’t buy UCF being a touchdown better on a neutral court in front of what is likely to be a pro-SMU crowd in Fort Worth.  I also know UCF hammered SMU 85-53 in the only regular season meeting between these two teams but that was in Orlando and this UCF team hasn’t played as well away from home.  Dickies Arena is a unique set up, this tournament has been there for a few years now but SMU will play the occasional regular season game in this building so a slight “home” edge to the Mustangs in addition to being regionally much closer to Fort Worth than UCF is.  SMU’s biggest issue this season has been offense but Dickies Arena has interesting sight lines that could mean it takes a while for teams to get going offensively so that could be somewhat of an equalizer here.  Central Florida isn’t great offensively, I’ve seen this team play in person and they can be extremely disjointed in their attack.  UCF will have the best player on the floor in Taylor Hendricks but outside of him the Knights take a lot of three pointers and I’m just not sure that’s the best strategy at this venue, especially in one of the first games here of the weekend.  It’s UCF’s poor shot selection and poor play that should keep SMU in this game, the Knights are 283rd nationally in field goal percentage turn the ball over as much as any team in this conference.  SMU doesn’t do anything particularly well offensively but this team is scrappy, the Mustangs have played FAR BETTER at home this season (not a home game but right around the corner) and I like how the early tip and all the logistics set up for SMU to potentially surprise a very average Central Florida team here. Play on SMU +7.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)