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Wake Forest (12PM ET ESPN2) – Yesterday was bound to happen, we had a 17-4 run entering Wednesday and some regression finally bit us with an 0-2 day.  The good news is I stayed very selective, had I fired everything I liked it would have been a lot worse so I look at getting out of yesterday only 0-2 as somewhat of a win and I’ll look to bounce back on what is likely to be a higher volume day today, starting things off with an early tip in the ACC when the #14 Miami Hurricanes take on the Wake Forest Demon Deacons in ACC Tournament quarterfinal action at the Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina.

I think Wake Forest is finally adjusting to life without Damari Monsanto and the Demon Deacons are now undervalued because of it.  I also love the fact Wake Forest played the Noon ET tip yesterday and won which means the Demon Deacons are familiar with playing at this time and have all the momentum here.  I also love the adjustments Wake Forest was able to make against a Syracuse team that blew them out in the regular season finale over the weekend.  Jesse Edwards destroyed Wake Forest on the inside in that game but the Demon Deacons were able to contain him yesterday and it’s a big reason Wake was able to escape with a win.  The Syracuse zone is probably a worse matchup for Wake Forest than Miami is, Wake isn’t going to need to space the floor here and hit a bunch of shots because that’s not how Miami plays and I think this is a far better matchup for Tyree Appleby to go out and create opportunities for his team to score.  Appleby dished out 12 assists in the first meeting and led Wake Forest to a 87 point output in a game where Monsanto (the key guy that’s been missing for Wake) didn’t play particularly well.  Miami shot an absurd 58.7 percent in that game because they got anything they wanted at the rim but I think Wake Forest, even with their extremely soft interior defense, can make the adjustment to slow down Miami a little bit here.  That’s probably all it’s going to take, Miami is the team more likely to be sluggish in the early tip and if Wake Forest can get the upper hand they can absolutely ride that momentum to another win. 

It’s important to note the only meeting between these two teams during the regular season was in Coral Gables and Wake Forest wasn’t great on the road this season.  It’s also important to note Wake Forest turned the ball over 18 times in the first meeting and has only averaged 11 per game this season so there’s a good chance the Demon Deacons are able to play a cleaner game here.  Miami has a rebounding edge here on paper but the rebounding in the first game was even and I think Wake Forest might be able to offset some of Miami’s perceived edge on the glass by playing with a greater intensity than Miami this afternoon.

In the end I think this is too many points, the winner of the 8/9 game in the ACC Tournament has had success in past years and I think this ends up being a competitive game here.  Wake Forest needs this game more than Miami does, they have revenge, momentum and the luxury of having already played a game in this venue at this time.  I think all of that plays out in favor of Wake Forest. Play on Wake Forest +6 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)