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Germany Bundesliga

(202469) Union Berlin at (202470) Werder Bremen

Nothing easy about backing a team coming off a 1-7 blowout loss, but that's exactly what we are going to do here.  Union Berlin are the biggest overperformers in the league this season.  They sit 4th in the table on 30 points but their xP (expected points) is 8 points lower at just 22 which is much closer to Werder Bremen's 19.  On the road, Berlin have generated the lowest xG at 7.3 and NPxG (non-penalty expected goals) at a ridiculously low 4.2 through eight matches.

Werder Bremen at home have generated 12.9 xG and 11.4 NPxG which suggests they may be the side to create more xG in this match, although Union Berlin do have a better defense as they have allowed 9.0 NPxG away while Bremen have allowed 12.4 at home.  So I'd argue these teams are closer to the same level yet we can get a small + price on the home side on the Draw no Bet.

TAKE WERDER BREMEN +0 (Draw no Bet)

Line Parameter: 4% to -110, 3% to -125

Where to Find:

DraftKings: Asian Handicap tab > Werder Bremen pk +100
FanDuel: Popular tab > Werder Bremen Tie No Bet +105