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Missouri (7PM ET SEC Network) – Let’s go double barrel action in the SEC on Tuesday when the Mississippi Rebels take on the Missouri Tigers at the SJB Pavilion at Ole Miss in Oxford, Mississippi. 

We nailed the line move, in my initial write up when I posted this I said I expected Missouri to go off favored and they currently sit -1.  That’s our segue into the very key injury news surrounding this game as Kobe Brown for Missouri and Matthew Murrell for Ole Miss are both questionable for this game.  I was at the game where Kobe Brown rolled over on his ankle, it did look bad and I expected it to cost him a game which it did over the weekend against Alabama. With that being said, Brown walked off under his own power and it’s almost been a week so I expect him to at least try to play here.  Murrell is a game time decision but the key component here regarding the injuries is that Mizzou can exist without Brown while Ole Miss (in my opinion) is screwed without Murrell. Missouri was able to defeat Arkansas without Noah Carter (he’s since come back) and one of the positives as a result of the Brown injury is that returning Isiaih Mosley got Brown’s minutes on Saturday and went for a game high 19 points in the loss.  Ole Miss doesn’t have another double digit scorer outside of Murrell and this is an Ole Miss offense that ranks 261st nationally in field goal percentage and outside the Top 300 nationally in points per game, free throw shooting and three point shooting.  Ole Miss also turns the ball over a ton and Missouri will convert easy points in transition.  I see Missouri as the better team even if Murrell plays and Brown doesn’t and I’m not going to ding the Tigers too much for losing to an elite Alabama team over the weekend.  Missouri was able to get by Arkansas despite the Razorbacks side and rebounding advantage and I expect the Tigers to do the same against a lesser Ole Miss team here. 

Missouri was able to dig in and get stops when they needed to against Arkansas last week and I think the Tigers can to the same against Ole Miss here. Ole Miss is going to need to live in the paint and win the rebounding battle to win this game but Missouri was able to thwart that against Arkansas and that gives me confidence in the Tigers being able to do the same against a team that I still have as far lesser than the Razorbacks (see the result between Arkansas and Ole Miss this weekend). Missouri has been on a horrific run shooting from the perimeter the past few games but Missouri isn’t a bad shooting team so I’ll look for some positive regression in that regard.  Inside the arc Missouri ranks 31st in the nation in field goal percentage and Mosley back at full strength provides another dynamic scoring option that likely hasn’t been fully factored into the number since he hasn’t played extended minutes since November.  If Brown does play, and he’s even close to strength, that’s a HUGE advantage for Missouri because Brown scores inside but also rebounds and helps in the paint.  Missouri is a team with at-large aspirations and fell a game below .500 in SEC play over the weekend so it’s a monster game for the Tigers and I expect them to treat it as such here.

Ole Miss might take a more conservative route with Murrell because this is becoming a throwaway season for the Rebs that makes sense to focus on being healthy by March than winning right now.  Ole Miss is 1-6 in conference play and just 9-10 overall, the only way the Rebels are going anywhere will be a run in the SEC Tournament so it probably makes sense to take caution with Murrell to make sure they don’t stupidly lose him for the rest of the season.  Missouri has superior depth so the Tigers can survive an injury to Brown while Ole Miss is already dealing with Daeshun Ruffin not being the same guy (has been banged up all season) so losing Murrell would be crippling.  Ole Miss has been steadily declining under Kermit Davis, his teams simply haven’t been able to stay healthy and this year is no exception. Dennis Gates has Missouri far better than the market can grasp and I think the Tigers grab another win here. Play on Missouri +1.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)