Recent Play Details

4% Take Miami (#546)

Let me start with an excerpt from my write-up from yesterday betting against the Boston Celtics in Orlando; a game they lost by 15 points as -7.5/-8 point favorites. 

“The Celtics won’t have Marcus Smart or Malcolm Brogdon on the floor this evening; their two best perimeter defenders.  Boston is coming off a pair of ultra-intense games – a rally from behind to win in OT vs Golden State, then hanging on for a two point win at Toronto over the weekend, not primed to bring their ‘A’ game here.”

Short handed Boston got smacked around in the second half last night.  Jaylen Brown: “To win on the road down a bunch of guys, it’s hard to do.” It’s not going to be any easier for them on the second of back-2-backs, even with their 7-0 SU record in their seven previous tries in this role.  Smart and Brogdon are out again.  So is second leading scorer Jaylen Brown, who gave us that key quote above about last night, and key interior muscle man Al Horford.  From all indications, the Celtics are not primed to bring their ‘A’ game tonight either. 

The Celtics knocked the Heat out of the playoffs last spring in a seven game war.  They got some measure of revenge with an OT win at Boston last month.  Bam Adebayo hasn’t forgotten: “When the Celtics come in, we always try to make it a dogfight…For us, trying to make this plush and our playoff run, we’ve got to go through the Celtics.”   Miami’s coming to play tonight; worthy of support in this very reasonable pointspread range. Take the Heat.

Line Parameter: 4% at -4.5 or lower, 3% at -5 or higher