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4% Stuttgart +0.5 (2:30 ET): This will be my first Bundesliga play in quite some time as the league was the last among Europe’s “Big 4” to return from the World Cup break, doing so just last weekend. Similar to what we saw in the Premier League in its first matchweek after the WC, it was a “goal fest” in the German top flight with all but two fixtures (Leipzig-Bayern and Mainz-Stuttgart) producing three or more goals. As a result, the Over went 7-2. But this selection is going to be on a side, one of those involved in one of the lower-scoring matches last week. 

The side in question is Stuttgart, who currently sit 16th, which in this league is the dreaded relegation playoff spot. The good news for Stuttgart is that there’s plenty of time to move up. They are level with Augsburg on points, so any positive result here would advance them in the table. But I’m looking for the Reds to get the full three here against a Hoffenheim side that’s now dropped four straight in the league after getting rocked 3-1 by Union Berlin on Saturday, allowing 22 shots in the process. 

Hoffenheim may have a slightly superior goal differential to Stuttgart, but the two sides are basically identical in both expected goal differential and expected points. To me, that makes taking the +0.5 with the visitors the way to go here. Before the season started, I tabbed Stuttgart as a side due for some positive regression. That hasn’t come yet, but it will. This is a side that has drawn both Bayern and Leipzig (the two best Bundesliga sides, IMO) plus they’ve earned AT LEAST a point in their last four fixtures against bottom half sides (w/ three wins!). Hoffenheim has just one win in its last 10 league matches. Grab the ½ goal. 4% Stuttgart +0.5