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With the crazy situation over at Juventus (docked 15 points for transfer dealings), and Inter shockingly dropping all three points at home vs. Empoli Monday, this Tuesday fixture between AC Milan and Lazio takes on an added importance in the race for the top four in Serie A. 

Lazio was an immediate beneficiary of Juve’s punishment, moving up to fourth in the table. However, the I Biancocelesti are now sixth after watching Roma win and Atalanta draw on Sunday. Yet they are still just four points behind second place AC Milan, who (like everyone else) is staring up at Napoli. The reigning Scudetto holders are 12 points adrift of the summit, so realistically second is almost certainly the highest they can finish. 

When breaking these two sides down, I have a clear preference. Over the L4 seasons (including the current one), Lazio has scored FORTY more goals than expected based on xG. That’s insane. They haven’t overachieved in that regard quite as much this campaign, but there is a notable gap between them and the other five Champions League hopefuls when it comes to xPts. Key for this fixture is that Lazio are expected to be without Ciro Immobile, their leader in xG. 

Look for AC Milan, winless in four straight competitions, to “get it together” here. They should have beaten Roma back on January 8th (blew 2-0 lead). Then they exited the Coppa Italia against 10-man Torino. An early own goal cost them a win over Lecce and then the 3-0 loss to Inter in the Italian Super Cup (played in Saudi Arabia) feels like an outlier effort to me. A side this good isn’t likely to go five in a row without winning and Stefano Piolo’s side desperately needs to create some “momentum” (hate that word) before next month’s Champions League. 

Might have more on this Tuesday morning on Stoppage Time. But look for AC Milan to win and get the full three points here. Play to +110.