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FINNs LOW-MAJOR TOP of the TICKET TOTAL I - Total Under 140.5 (-110) over-under position on this Monday night event in Hartford is good to 139.5 points.
3% game rating

Ivy League vs Independent matchup makes it feel much more like a Friday night than a Big Monday but the short slate tonight in the college container allows more time to spend on those programs that are Ivy or Independent driven.

The Penn Quakers are significant chalk, road favorites, that resemble a College Saturday handicap in a matchup that isn't even on either side of the ball. In this situation, the Quakers are deeper, and bigger and have the ability to dictate almost anything they desire tonight in Hartford.

The Hawks are riding a double-digit losing streak and it won't end tonight against a quality Division I squad from the Ivy.  The absence of Hartford's most consistent contributor, Kimbrough, removes any serious chance of the Hawks staying in touch with the Quakers til crunch time, the final five minutes of the second stanza.

Discounting Hartford tonight is based on what I believe to be the inability to match the offensive production they performed to vs St Francis, UMBC, and Morgan State, the opponents in the Hawks' last three contests. Hartford has averaged over 70 points per game in those three matchups with an 84-point output in the loss to the Bears last Wednesday.

Kimbrough has been out for nearly three weeks and the Hawks miss the 6'8" senior and his 17% D rating, in KenPom's metric measurement.

The fact that Penn doesn't play an inside-outside offensive scheme reduces what my simulation results for Penn equate to. The Quakers' percentage of takes in the paint, and their game-night field goal share at the rim is just north of 30 percent. When you have a player that performs to style like that of Jordan Dingle open jump shots is the flavor of the day, or night rather.

This is a matchup that figures to find Penn holding a double-digit lead in the first 10 minutes of the second half which in turn will result in the Quakers' personnel, e.g. Dingle, Slajchert, and Spinoso receiving reduced minutes to save on what inevitably takes place in January and February, minutes that take a toll on even and 18 or 19-year-old body.

There is little reason to lay the three football possessions in this Ivy vs Indi matchup. The 140-point over-under is uber-attractive when considering how I envision this contest playing out.  

Quakers at Hawks Total Under 140.5 (-110)