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FINNs BIG 10 TOP of the TICKET - Wisconsin Badgers +2.5 (-108) spread position is good on Whiskey to a pick'em. 
3% game rating

This Big 10 event is an added game on tonight's basketball betting board. This game was originally scheduled to be played Saturday but was postponed due to COVID-19 issues the Wildcats experienced over the last week. Northwestern's squad has had little to no practice time and were down to just six players had Saturday's event not been postponed. It is two days later and the Big 10 event is a go. The go of the affair resides on the Wisconsin side of the court if for nothing other than this coach Gard roster is defensively elite, as are the Wildcats and without the necessary wind to defend at a high level for 40 minutes tonight something gives ... and that give is Northwestern.

Whiskey has quality wins and losses this season. Non-conference victories over Dayton, USC, and Marquette in combination with an overtime loss to Kansas position the Badgers in a spot to earn their second straight and fifth league win tonight in  Evanston.

The metrics, according to KenPom, have tonight's number in line with the market.  The home court, Welsh-Ryan Arena, for the Wildcats is a smaller venue and holds in the neighborhood of 1 -to 1.5 points of value on my home court chart.

The difference between these two teams when they are whole and playing on neutral wood isn't significant but if there is a player that tips the scale one way or the other it is Wisconsin's 6-9 all-everything forward Tyler Wahl (ankle). The senior touches the ball in a third of the Wisconsin possessions and is credited with over 27 percent of the team's game-night shots.

Wahl missed three games to an ankle injury, all three resulted in losses, at the hands of Indiana, Michigan State, and Illinois). Wahl averages just under 13 points per game (12.9) grab 6.3 rebounds and despite his pedestrian percentage from the field (41.2%) his presence in the lineup and on the floor is worth a ridiculous 13 points to the Badgers.  The Badgers do not turn the ball over giving their opponents points off errors, be they forced or unforced. Wahl has one game under his belt after missing two weeks of game action in the team's win over the Nittany Lions this past weekend. Wahl played 33 minutes and scored 10 points on a less-than-average day at the office connecting on 2-of-9 from the field and 1-of-1 from the 3-line.  Wahl missed as many free throws as he made and grabbed only one defensive rebound against two offensive boards.

Gard and the Badgers are first five-heavy. There are five players that the Badgers bench boss Gard depends on to carry the bulk on game night. Hepburn, Essegian, Crowl, Davis, and Wahl.

The Northwestern team percentage from the charity stripe, of 74% is a mirage. This is not a good shooting group representing the Evanston 'Cats. Northwestern's eFG% ranks 339th out of 363 D-1 programs.

The Wildcats depend on points off turnovers. Northwestern ranks as the 26th-best program in D-1 ball in creating turnovers. Again, Whiskey doesn't turn the ball over and rank as the No. #2 team in Division I basketball in turnovers per 100 possessions.

Everything that Garg's kids do they do deliberately, and technically sound. The Badgers do not turn their opponents over much more than the average collegiate squad. They don't allow second-chance points or an exorbitant number of transition points.

Northwestern is unique in more ways than one. The most original metrics by the Wildcats come in three forms. Northwestern ranks 340th out of 363 programs in real-time field goal percentage from inside the arc, and 2-point shooting. They surrender a mere 41.5 percent off to the opponents, topping of the D-1 basketball chart. And finally, the team's 74% shooting from the stripe is misleading. They don't go to the free throw line more than the average D-1 squad.

The Wildcats have been weather tested this season playing a much more challenging non-con slate and the lack of practice and sweating this past week for the Cats combined with all of the edges I have listed in this game night analysis screams Wisconsin as the play tonight. 

Wisconsin Badgers +2.5 (-108)