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Baylor (9PM ET ESPN) – It’s a split for Sunday but Niagara gets it done and that’s now an 11-4 run on CBB over the past week plus.  It was an excellent week overall last week and I’ll look to stay hot on the hardwood as we head to the Big 12 for the marquee matchup on Monday when the #17 Baylor Bears take on the Kansas Jayhawks at the Ferrell Center in Waco, Texas. 

Prior to the season my picks were Baylor and Texas in the Big 12, with the intention of opposing Kansas, and I really haven’t changed my tune.  Of course I didn’t see Kansas State starting 6-1 (no one did) but Baylor is right in the mix at 4-3 in Big 12 play and this is a Baylor team that could easily be in first place right now had a couple of last second things gone their way.  Baylor has one bad conference loss which came on the road at currently #12 Iowa State while the Bears other two losses were by one to TCU and by two to Kansas State.  Since, Baylor has won four straight and has the top offensive rating in Big 12 play and I’m willing to ride the Baylor momentum since I think “form” is going to matter in the Big 12 more than any other conference this year.  The reason for that is there’s no “nights off” in this league and I think Baylor is still undervalued due to the TCU and Kansas State results.  Three of Baylor’s four consecutive wins have come on the road and they haven’t had a big home game in a while so it should be a capacity crowd in Waco tonight.  I know from experience what the atmosphere at the Ferrell Center should be like tonight because I went to this game with CT Bets last year and Baylor packed the house and came back from a major early deficit to pull away for an easy win and cover. I’m hearing a lot of “Kansas can’t lose three straight” and “its Kansas as an underdog” as justification to back Kansas here but it’s unprecedented how good the Big 12 is this year and I think we are going to see some unprecedented things happen.  I have Baylor as the better of these two teams and I don’t see regression coming for Baylor (they already had their down patch) so I can’t pass up simply needing Baylor to win in a home game here.  Kansas has three wins over Oklahoma State, Texas Tech and Iowa State where they got a key call and were able to survive by a bucket.  Baylor is just a better team, the Bears will be fully focused (I don’t think there’s much of a look ahead to unranked Arkansas) and I like them to emerge with a win in Waco here. 

Jalen Wilson is an absolute stud, he’s had 30 or more points in his past two games and if Bill Self doesn’t call that timeout Kansas likely beats Kansas State but I don’t think Wilson is in as favorable of a matchup here.  I think Kansas might struggle to guard Baylor, the Bears have ridiculously quick guards and Baylor’s ability to score has been their ticket to winning games.  Baylor isn’t great defensively but this is a spot where the crowd might be able to coax them to pick up their defensive intensity which makes it more likely Baylor’s defense steps up than it does the Kansas offense goes off to the point where they can outscore Baylor.  We really haven’t seen Baylor dig in on the defensive end unless they have desperately needed to but the Bears have also been on the road of late and I’m not going to dock Baylor for the 97 they gave up to Kansas State since that game went to overtime and Kansas State got off to a historic start offensively in Big 12 play. Outside of Wilson I think the Kansas offense is good, not great, the Jayhawks check in around 75th nationally in points per game, field goal percentage and three point percentage and don’t shoot free throws particularly well.  Both teams turn it over more than they should but turnovers tend to hurt the road team more and, in a game that profiles as close, Kansas turning the ball over and their inability to hit free throws could be the difference maker here. Baylor was able to ride the home crowd last year to extended scoring runs and that’s what THIS Baylor team has done offensively of late (without the help of the home crowd) so some potential underlying value there.  No matter which angle I look at this game from I see Baylor as the better team, I’m tossing out the “due” theory in Big 12 play since I do think the losses are going to pile up for teams in this “no nights off” league and I’ll take what I believe to be the better team simply to win the game on their home court here. Play on Baylor -125 for 4% (or 4 units)