Recent Play Details

4% Valencia (3:00 ET): When looking at the La Liga table, one thing stands out. Valencia should be higher. They have a +5 YTD goal differential and are eighth in xPts (expected points) despite having played the fewest number of matches in the league. Yet, here we are, and Valencia currently sits in just 13th position, below a number of inferior sides. Facing an Almeria side that’s below them in the standings, I fully anticipate Los Che picking up the full three points Monday afternoon as (justifiable) favorites. 

Valencia hasn’t been in league action since Jan 6 when they suffered a stunning 1-0 loss to Cadiz. They have since bounced back though, as I played them in the Copa del Rey Round of 16 when they slaughtered second tier Sporting Gijon 4-0 and didn’t allow a single shot on target. That’s the kind of performance I expect here, against a top flight side that - at least on paper - they should dominate. 

Almeria spent the last seven seasons in the Segunda Division, which they finally won in 2021-22 to earn promotion. While in 14th place, just one point back of the opposition here, Almeria is still just one point clear of safety and avoiding relegation is far from guaranteed. It’s crazy that Valencia is only two points clear of relegation, despite their underlying metrics. There’s a 10 point gap between these two sides in xPts and Almeria has a YTD goal differential of -8 (reminder Valencia is +5). With Almeria having their worst away record in La Liga (just two points!), everything points to a big win for the home team. 4% Valencia