Recent Play Details

4% Denver (8:05 ET): The reason this number opened so short is that there’s some uncertainty over whether or not two-time Nikola Jokic will suit up for the Nuggets. Jamal Murray is also listed as questionable. But given the way this line has moved, I suspect one or both will suit up. Regardless, we’re talking about a Nuggets team that has won 16 straight at home and is 3-0 SU vs. the Thunder this season. They lead the Western Conference with a 33-13 SU record (won nine straight overall) and no matter what the starting lineup ends up being, I expect a win and cover tonight. 

Oklahoma City has certainly overachieved, considering they lost the #2 overall draft pick (Chet Holmgren) to an injury during the preseason. The team is 22-24 SU on the year, well on their way to exceeding its preseason win projection and only one-half game out of the final play-in round spot. But, as you may recall, I successfully faded the Thunder Friday night in Sacramento as they lost 118-113. For some, it was a push (SAC closed -5). While OKC had previously covered seven straight, I still think now is the time to “sell high.” 

This is a bad spot for the Thunder, who are playing on the road for the sixth time in their last seven games. Denver is a tough place to play (altitude) regardless of how good the Nuggets are and the home team did just win by 23 despite no Jokic Friday vs. Indiana. They’ve also previously beaten the Thunder w/o Murray and Michael Porter Jr. OKC has hit over 40% from three in its last two games, which I do not suspect will continue. 4% Denver (Play to -8)