Recent Play Details

3% Maryland (1:00 ET): I’ll step in and try to fade Purdue again. That didn’t work so well on Thursday (Minnesota lost 61-39!) but I remain steadfast that the Boilermakers are overvalued in the marketplace right now. There’s a blueprint for attacking this team, namely contain POY Zach Edey and make the other players beat you (admittedly easier said than done) while offensively attacking the weak perimeter defense off the dribble. Needless to say, I believe Maryland will be more successful than Minnesota was at doing this. 

Maryland is probably a bit undervalued now. The Terrapins are 3-0 SU at home and 0-4 SU on the road in Big 10 play. They’re coming off a 64-58 win over Michigan (as 2.5-pt favorites) where G Young scored 26 points on 9 of 9 shooting. The road woes are a bit of a concern, but the Terps are a Top 40 team in defensive efficiency and there will be no intimidation from the environment in West Lafayette considering the tough schedule they’ve faced. I also suspect we’ll start to see the team’s 30.9% shooting from three-point land start to improve as conference play rolls on. 

Purdue is just 5-10 ATS as a favorite. While they recently covered a pair of double digit spreads, those came against Nebraska and Minnesota, the two worst teams in the league. Two of the last five games have seen the Boilermakers win by 1 and 2 points. Those were on the road (against Ohio State and Michigan State), but I’ve got Maryland rated fairly comparably to those two teams. Also, Purdue is 0-6 ATS this season following a game in which it allowed 60 or less points. Each of the last two meetings between these teams have been decided by a single points and Maryland has covered six straight times here in West Lafayette. 3% Maryland