Recent Play Details

3%  Take St Bonaventure (#703)

Here’s what I wrote about Loyola prior to their last game; a 17 point home loss to St Louis.  Numbers have been slightly adjusted to reflect the results of that game: 

“Loyola won 99 games during the last four years of Porter Moser’s tenure as the Ramblers head coach. They made a Final Four run; unheard of for a mid-major of this caliber.  Sister Jean became one of the nation’s most famous boosters.  But then Moser took the Oklahoma job and Loyola moved up in class to the Atlantic-10 conference.  Things have not gone swimmingly since.  Ramblers head coach Drew Valentine has seen his team collapse this season, a legit bottom feeder.  They’re 0-7 SU, 0-7 ATS since before Christmas; an extended stretch of repeated failures – all single digit pointspreads, all double digit defeats. Valentine’s quotes are not exactly ‘bet-on’: “We look like a team that has no idea what they are doing.  It’s really frustrating and disappointing when that happens.  We have low emotion, low energy, low spirit.  That’s got to change.  I can’t beg for guys to have that every single day.”  Loyola is a ‘bet-against’ team until proven otherwise.”

St Bonnies has been an undervalued commodity in recent weeks: 4-2 SU, 5-1 ATS since New Year’s Eve. All five ATS covers came in a very similar pointspread range, between +2 and -2 – they’re hanging tough and beating the teams they’re not outclassed by.  They’ve had a handful of tight road losses this season, but against hapless, free-falling Loyola, I expect the Bonnies to get over the hump.  Fade the dead!  Take St Bonnies.

Line Parameter: 3% at -2 or lower, 2% at -2.5 or higher