Recent Play Details

UTEP (9PM ET ESPN Plus) – One of the most intriguing teams in the country this season has been Florida Atlantic, the Owls haven’t lost since early November and are now #24 in the nation but I think their rating is inflated and I’ll go to battle with the home standing UTEP Miners here at the Don Haskins Center in El Paso, Texas. 

At this point I think it’s going take a road game against a team that can really defend to trip up Florida Atlantic and that’s what we have with the Miners here. UTEP second year head coach Joe Golding is starting to make his mark on this program, the Miners are starting to play team defense the way his successful Abilene Christian teams did and UTEP has now won three of four and has held four of their past five opponents to 61 points or less.  UTEP has their issues offensively, the Miners turn it over a ton and simply cannot shoot from the perimeter but the saving grace for UTEP with the ball is they will work the shot clock and take good shots.  UTEP is hitting 46.2 percent as a team from the field this season and the Miners willingness to lock in on the defensive end and slow the game down could be the equalizer here against a Florida Atlantic team that prefers to play at a fast pace.  This matchup reminds me a lot of the FAU/North Texas matchup from a few weeks ago which North Texas controlled throughout and inexplicably lost the game by giving up a 13-0 run to FAU late.  UTEP is capable of putting fast paced Florida Atlantic in that type of game and if the Miners are successful in doing so there’s a good chance this game snaps the FAU win streak and a GREAT chance UTEP at least covers the +5.5. 

I also think this is a VERY difficult spot for a Florida Atlantic team that will now play their third road game in six days.  It’s also FAU’s fourth game in the past eight days and two of those were physical battles against the likes of North Texas and Western Kentucky.  Florida Atlantic also isn’t flying under the radar anymore, the Owls are nationally ranked and have a big bullseye on their back so they are getting everyone’s best shot night in and night out.  We cashed a 5% ticket in a similar spot on Thursday fading Charleston who is experiencing the same thing as the Cougars struggled to put away lowly Monmouth.  The difference here is UTEP is a very capable team, the Miners can hang with anyone in Conference USA and are a fantastic 10-2 at home this season.  Florida Atlantic is a special team, barring a major collapse this will go down as the best Owls team in program history but it’s just so hard to go unbeaten in any conference so it’s inevitable FAU will lose one at some point.  Knowing how tricky the El Paso trip is historically, and considering where in the schedule it falls for FAU, I have a strong feeling the Owls first conference loss is going to come here. 

I’m not as high on UTEP this year as I (incorrectly) was last season but I’m still a huge fan of Joe Golding and expect him to succeed in El Paso sooner than later. Golding was able to win a game in the NCAA Tournament with an Abilene Christian team that was predicated on defense and I think he can do the same with UTEP in Conference USA.  UTEP has had the occasional lapse (see the UTSA game when he made wholesale substitutions on multiple occasions) but I don’t think he’s going to have trouble motiving his Miners team against nationally ranked Florida Atlantic.  I think the UTEP defense comes to play here, I like the Miners chances at slowing Florida Atlantic down and if we get the right pace I just don’t see Florida Atlantic winning ANOTHER road game by margin.  Play on UTEP +5.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)