We're taking the home team, Borussia Monchengladbach, to win and cover at home on Sunday against Bayer Leverkusen over in the German Bundesliga.
Full Breakdown
Just four points separate these two teams in the league table right now and it could be argued that Bayer Leverkusen are the ones coming into this one in hotter form overall, winning all of their last three league games.
However, the recent World Cup ruined whatever momentum Bayer Leverkusen may have built up ahead of this fixture with neither team playing a competitive matchup in well over two months, so we're trusting the numbers in this one in a spot we expect the home team to roll in on Sunday.
‘Die Fohlen’ have been in phenomenal form at home this season inside Borussia-Park, amassing the second most points in the league overall behind only RB Leipzig (Bayern Munich have played one game less than Gladbach and sit one point behind), and even with the recent news of goalkeeper Yann Sommer's departure to Bayern Munich, Borussia Monchengladbach have moved quickly to replace him, bringing in Montpellier goalkeeper Jonas Omlin over the transfer window.
That news shouldn't adjust this line too much however as Borussia Monchengladbach's main strength this season hasn't been their defense, it's been their offense, where they've scored as many goals as RB Leipzig have this season over that eight-game home stretch, averaging 2.5 goals per game, along with having the league's third highest offensive xG numbers at home this year behind only Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig.
Bayer Leverkusen have also been excellent at home this season ranking as a top five team overall. Unfortunately for them however, this game is on the road on Sunday where they've predominantly struggled all year, ranking bottom five in the league overall with just two wins away from home all season, along with having the league's 4th lowest expected goals differential per 90 minutes on the road this year also.
Take the better team at home on Sunday, Borussia Monchengladbach, to get the win and cover against Bayer Leverkusen over in the German Bundesliga this weekend.
PLAY: BORUSSIA MONCHENGLADBACH +0 [PK] +105
*Line good to -130, -131 to -150 (4%), -151 or -0.25 (3%)
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