Recent Play Details

3% Two-Team, 6-point teaser: Eagles (-7.5 to -1.5) and Cowboys (+4 to +10) 

I was on WagerTalk Today Thursday and went over all the reasons why I believe the Giants are - easily - the weakest of the eight remaining teams in the NFL Playoffs. I’m a firm believer in both point differential and yards per play differential as predictive metrics. Of the eight teams still standing, the G-men are the worst in both regards. The other seven teams left ranked #1-#7 in the league in regular season point differential. The Giants (-6) were 16th. Also, the Giants have a negative YPP differential this season. Three other playoff teams - Vikings, Chargers, Bucs, also had negative YPP differentials and all three lost last weekend.

It was an extremely fortunate matchup for the Giants last week against the Vikings, who owned even worse predictive metrics. Also, as you saw last Sunday, the Vikings’ defense is horrid. Minnesota will likely go down as the worst double digit win team in league history as they actually finished bottom six in DVOA! It’s a much tougher matchup this week for the G-men against the top seeded Eagles, who have a top five defense in EPA and beat NY twice during the regular season - by a combined score of 70-38. 

The Eagles are also a top four team in both yards per play differential and point differential. This is not like last year when the #1 seeds in both conferences were total frauds. I know that Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is banged up, but the team was 14-1 SU with him as the starter in the regular season. In the final regular season game, with Hurts back in the lineup, the Eagles were up 19-0 on the Giants early in the second half. The reason that Philly got “backdoored” (as 17-point favorites!) is because they knew they were going to be the #1 seed at that point (Cowboys were also losing) and took their foot off the gas. Through nearly seven quarters of head to head action, the Eagles had outscored the Giants 67-22 this season. It’s also worth mentioning the Eagles closed -7 AT the Giants back in Week 14.

But with the number now at -7.5, I’d prefer to tease the Eagles down to -1.5. We can pair them with the Cowboys +11. Obviously, the oddsmakers see Cowboys-49ers (last game of the weekend) as the most even matched Divisional round battle. I can’t see Dallas losing by double digits. Remember the 49ers, at home, trailed the Seahawks at halftime last week. The Cowboys have just two double digit losses all year - the first and last games of the regular season, the latter being a totally meaningless result. They have not been an underdog since Week 6. As for the 49ers, teams on a win streak of 10+ games (Niners have won 11 in a row) are just 1-13 ATS in the Divisional Round with eight outright losses, missing the spread by an average of more than a TD.

At the very worst, I expect the Eagles to win straight up (by at least 2 pts) and the Cowboys NOT to lose by double digits this weekend.