Recent Play Details

3% Take Miami (#561)

Let me start with an excerpt from my last anti Dallas write-up, a home loss to Atlanta earlier this week.  Numbers have been adjusted slightly to reflect current realities: 

“I’ve been betting against the Mavs at home for the better part of the last three months; 8-1 ATS in my last nine tries fading Dallas on their home floor.  They’ve been consistent money losers as favorites on ANY floor, to the tune of 11-21 ATS in 32 previous tries laying points or at pk this season.  Don’t expect that to change this evening.  Dallas has seen the injuries pile up right in the midst of their most grueling portion of the schedule.  They’re playing their ninth game in 15 days – with multiple sets of back-2-backs during that span.  While Luka Doncic and Tim Hardaway are both expected to play this evening, Dallas won’t have key role players Maxi Kleber or Christian Wood tonight.  This team has lost five of their lastsix, stumbling through the dog days of January, worth fading again this evening.  Head coach Jason Kidd: “Hopefully we get healthy soon. Until then, we have to play with the guys who are in uniform.”  That’s not exactly a ‘bet-on’ quote, to put it mildly.

There’s urgency for the Heat right now; finally getting healthier even though role player Duncan Robinson is expected to miss tonight’ game.  They’ve already gotten Caleb Martin, Tyler Herro and Caleb Martin back. Undisputed team leader Jimmy Butler: “It’s only going to get better.  We want (our guys) to catch a rhythm.  We want them to be healthy and comfortable.  We need those guys out there.”   The Heat won their only game in Dallas last year by 15 points and I wouldn’t be shocked in the slightest if they’re in control throughout again this evening.  Take the Heat.

Line Parameter: This line has been jumping all around this morning.  At -1.5 or better, Miami is worth a full 3% here.  At -2 or higher, it’s a 2% wager