Recent Play Details

5% Buffalo (3:00 ET): Yes, another 5% play against Cincinnati. I faded the Bengals on Wild Card Weekend and it was a wire to wire cover with the Ravens (who, to be clear, were a 5% play) and honestly Baltimore should have probably won that game outright. They outgained Cincy 364-234 for the game (5.5 to 4.3 yards per play), but of course the game swung on a rather dramatic 98-yard fumble return for the Bengals, giving them a 24-17 win when it looked like the Ravens were going to go ahead (and probably win) by that same score. 

Moving to Buffalo, they had a closer than expected call against Miami in the Wild Card Round, even with the Dolphins having to turn to third string QB Skylar Thompson. But again, this is another one from last weekend where I thought the final score was misleading. The Bills jumped out (rather quickly) to a 17-0 lead and it looked like “all she wrote.” But they let the ‘Fins back in the game with three turnovers. There seems to be some finger-pointing towards the Bills’ defense, but three of Miami’s five scoring drives were 20 yards or less, plus they had a defensive TD. While the final score ended up 34-31, the Bills had a 423-231 edge in total yards (largest of WC Weekend!) and outgained the Dolphins 5.9 to 3.3 on a per play basis. 

Obviously, I wish I would have jumped on the Bills a bit sooner, but the number is now in the proverbial “dead area” and I’m fine with laying anything below a touchdown. Remember that Buffalo closed as 2.5-point road favorites for the MNF game that was canceled. The Bills are definitely the better team here as they have the superior point and yards per play differentials for the season. Cincinnati has been outgained this year in five of six games vs. playoff teams and 10 of 17 games overall. They are just +15.7 YPG and +0.1 YPP for the season. The Bengals’ offensive line has also become a real issue with three injured starters (will update status) and that led to not only Joe Burrow being under siege, but just 51 yards rushing vs. the Ravens. I love the Bills in this matchup. 5% Buffalo (Play to -6,5).