Recent Play Details

4% Take Dallas (#317)

When Dak Prescott got hurt in Week 1, a 19-3 loss to Tampa Bay, a major sportsbook decided to pay out Cowboys Under bettors in the season wins marketplace.  That ended up being a poor decision. Dallas didn’t fall apart when Prescott got hurt.  In fact, they went 4-1 SU/ATS with Cooper Rush behind center, including wins and covers against a pair of winners on Wild Card weekend, the Giants and Bengals. 

Why didn’t Dallas fall apart early?  Three reasons.  First and foremost, this is a Top quartile defense – just like San Fran – allowing only 5.1 yards per play for the season.  Dan Quinn has worked magic here, just like he did when he turned the Seahawks defense into a Super Bowl caliber unit when he worded under Pete Carroll.  Note the Cowboys ability to create turnovers in bunches, week after week.  Second, their offensive line has been blowing open holes for the running backs; creating a balanced attack.  That’s key against the 49ers – you’re not going to beat San Francisco without the ability to run AND throw effectively. 

Third and perhaps most importantly, this Dallas team has character.  They’re not soft; they’ve responded well to adversity all season, and they’re hungry for postseason success after more than two decades of failures.  Mike McCarthy has pushed all the right buttons here, and this team is ‘live’ to make a DEEP postseason run.

San Francisco has been feeding on the weak.  Based on my power rating numbers for every team they faced on the week that they faced them, Dallas this week is going to be the toughest foe they’ve faced since losing at home to Kansas City by three touchdowns back in October.  This is a step up in defensive class for rookie third string QB Brock Purdy, who has played extremely well, but will be hard pressed to lead his team to victory by margin on Sunday.  Too many points – live dog here!  Take the Cowboys

Line Parameter: 4% at +3.5 or higher, 3% at +3 or lower