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Boise State (9PM ET Mountain West Network) – Cowboys roll start to finish and it’s a 2-1 Monday with another 5% MAX BET win.  College hoops has been heating up for us over the past week and I hope to keep it going in the right direction on Tuesday night in the Mountain West where the Boise State Broncos take on the Nevada Wolfpack at the ExtraMile Arena in Boise, Idaho. 

I really have to love a side to lay points, but this is a bet that’s really been coming for me all season so I’m going to bite the bullet and do it here. The very first night of the CBB season I went against Nevada, I talked about how I felt like the Wolf Pack profiled as a fade this season and I’m ready to revisit that thought here. Thankfully I haven’t acted on that notion much since, as Nevada has been a cover machine, but I find it hard to believe Nevada can sustain that as they start to face the better Mountain West teams in conference play.  Nevada recently lost by 9 to San Diego State in game they did not deserve to cover and trailed Utah State this past Friday before a 48 point outburst to pull away in the second half.  It’s far less likely Nevada can pull that off on the road and even less likely it happens against a Boise State team that’s suddenly playing their best ball of the season. I have Boise State as a legitimate contender in the Mountain West, I still feel like Nevada falls off and I’m going to put my money on that starting to materialize here. 

Boise State lost to Nevada by a bucket in Reno a couple weeks ago but that was the game Marcus Shaver returned from injury and since the Broncos are 4-0. That’s notable since Shaver is one of the top players in this league, leading a Boise State offense that (with him in the lineup) is one of the more prolific jump shooting teams in the country. Shaver’s three point shooting is actually way down so far this season but that’s probably due to playing injured and should improve the rest of the way.  The Shaver injury allowed others to emerge, specifically sophomore Tyson Degenhart, who has started to take over as the leading threat on this Boise State team. Having both of them play well is what Boise State was really hoping for this season and 13th year head coach Leon Rice is a guy that will absolutely get the most out of having above average talent.  Rice is as good as there is at taking good players and making them great, that was the expectation for Boise this season but it’s now looking like the reality and that makes the Broncos a “BET ON” in favorable spots like this one on their home floor tonight. 

I also have good reason to believe Nevada regresses going forward and the combination of that and Boise State being a “BET ON” makes laying the -5 doable for me here.  Boise State’s offense has been improving since Shaver’s return and I think we see Nevada’s defense FINALLY struggle against a Boise State team that has now played against them once.  Nevada’s defense was ridiculously good in non-conference play but when you look back they didn’t play many overwhelmingly good offensive teams.  Kansas State is one of them but Nevada gave up 96 points in that game while the 78 conceded to Oregon in a loss is looking worse now than it did when that game was played.  I also just don’t buy Nevada being able to go shoot 55+ percent on the road the way they have in their past two conference home games.  This is the definition of a “PLAY ON” coming up against a “PLAY AGAINST” for me, I don’t think Nevada can replicate their shot making against a Boise State defense that now knows how to defend them and I think that’s going to give the Broncos a considerable upper hand here.

Finally, I’m willing to start paying a bigger premium to back teams on their home floor.  I’ve been to a number of different CBB venues already this season and I’ve noticed the crowds over the past couple weeks have been considerably better.  Kids are returning from break and fans are starting to get invested and show up to games.  Boise State has that dynamic, this is a football school during the first semester but now the main sports attraction in Southwestern Idaho is Boise State basketball. Boise State is in need of a signature result and I think this ends up being it.  Play on Boise State -5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)