Recent Play Details

Ravens (8:15PM ET NBC) – It was a loss for the ages on Saturday as the Chargers blow a 27-0 lead to cost us a 5% NFL MAX bet.  A 2-1 CBB day makes it a Saturday split (yes I’m aware we lose a unit and some juice) and I’ll move on to Sunday and try to turn our NFL season back in the right direction when the Baltimore Ravens take on the Cincinnati Bengals in AFC Wild Card Round action at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio.   

Like everyone, I wanted to see what the quarterback situation would be here before locking in a bet and I also wanted to see how high the number would get before some respected money stepped in.  It looks like that high watermark was +9, this was hit back to +8.5 and will likely move to +8 everywhere so I decided to lock in with the Ravens in what I expect to be a competitive game.  I know the stakes are far higher here but we just saw these two teams play last week and Tyler Huntley didn’t play for Baltimore in that game.  It was a game Cincinnati controlled but the Ravens outgained the Bengals and showed enough where I think the combination of Huntley and Anthony Brown under center gives the Ravens elite coaching staff enough ammo to drum up a successful game plan here.  Baltimore has the best kicker in football in Justin Tucker, if the Ravens can get him into range it’s basically a guaranteed three points and that will also help our cause here.  Last week’s score is also deceiving since the Bengals scored most of their points off turnovers and I think that’s also serving to inflate this line here.  There’s no question Baltimore misses Lamar Jackson but the Ravens offense has been a “plug and play” system for years and I don’t think that’s changed here.  Huntley’s effectiveness is going to be key for Baltimore but I think there’s enough ability on the Ravens side of the ball to compete in a playoff game.

Baltimore still has a solid defense, they showed the ability to get to Joe Burrow last week and if the Ravens can stop the Bengals rushing attack I think they have a huge chance to stay in a defensive battle here.  The Bengals have come up aces on the big plays of late, a fumble six last week, a forced fumble on the goal line the week before but Baltimore is capable of playing clean and if they do the Bengals might not have enough to pull away here.  I’ve never been high on Lamar Jackson as a quarterback, I’ve done well backing the Ravens over the past couple seasons when Jackson has been out (because there’s not nearly as big of a drop off as perceived) and I think that’s the case again here. Even if it’s mainly Brown under center he had the benefit of a “warm up” game against the Bengals last week so that should play in the Ravens favor.  The only thing that was keeping me from making the Ravens my biggest play of Wild Card weekend is the quarterback situation but the move on the number has now more than compensated for that.  If the quarterback play is awful out of Baltimore we are probably screwed but I’m willing to bet on the Huntley/Brown tandem and if the duo plays well I think we not only cover but the Ravens have a great chance to win here. 

I’ve always liked Tyler Huntley and I’m going to take the chance that he leaves it all out on the field here.  If Huntley is ineffective and the Ravens can’t move the ball (and Brown is overmatched) this will be a tall task for Baltimore and they likely get blown out.  If Baltimore gets ANYTHING out of the quarterback position, and the Ravens can move the ball, this should be a tightly contested defensive battle that Tucker and the defense keep the Ravens in the game.   If the Ravens offense is fully firing they could easily win here as they know the Bengals well and I trust Harbaugh as much as anyone to game plan for Burrow and the Bengals offense.  There’s also the possibility the Ravens are behind the entire game but I don’t think Baltimore quits and the +8.5 should be in play right until the very end.  Just too many different ways the Ravens stay within the number here.  Play on Ravens +8.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)