Recent Play Details

Cowboys (8:15PM ET ABC) – An inexplicable turnover cost the Ravens the game, but the 24-17 final is good enough for us to cash Ravens +8.5.  It’s a much needed 2-0 Sunday, I feel like my reads on these playoff games have been strong (we should have won Chargers and I should have added Dolphins like I said I was going to) and I’m going to try to finish the Wild Card round with a MAX BET winner when the Dallas Cowboys head to the Sunshine State to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.

Very similar to the Jaguars, the Bucs have been gifted a home playoff game despite having the record of a team that shouldn’t be in the playoffs.  I could see this turning into a similar type blowout but the difference here is the Cowboys aren’t the Chargers and if Dallas builds any sort of lead here their elite defense should easily be able to close out the game here.  Tampa Bay’s offense has been horrendous, aside from one good game against the Panthers the Bucs offense has massively underachieved and it starts with the guy that everyone wants to bet on here.  Tom Brady has been underthrowing balls all season, his QB rating is as bad as it’s been since his last year in New England but that shouldn’t have been the case with all the weapons surrounding him in Tampa Bay.  There’s the thought that the Buccaneers will have success running the ball behind an offensive line that’s getting healthy at the right time but Dallas has an outstanding defensive front and one of the best pass rushes in the league.  Historically, the way to beat Brady is to put him under pressure, the Cowboys do that as well as anyone and I think that paves the path to victory for the visitors here. 

The way to beat Dallas is throwing the ball down the field but I have some big-time questions as to whether Brady is the guy to do it.  Brady has a receiver in Mike Evans that can beat anyone in the Dallas secondary one on one but TB12 has often severely underthrown deep balls this season and even the Cowboys can defend that.  Considering Brady is likely to be pressured by the Cowboys elite pass rush it makes it even more likely that this might be the case.  The Bucs struggled to move the ball on Dallas when these two teams played in the season opener but were able to win the game 19-3 thanks to a Cowboys offense that was completely inept at the time.  Dallas is far better offensively now than they were in that game and, if it comes down to who is going to score more, I think that’s a scenario that favors the visitors here.

Dak Prescott played horrible for Dallas last week but I expect him to bounce back in what is a far bigger game here.  Dak also played awful in the season opener against this Tampa Bay team so I think the Cowboys have revenge here in more ways than one.  Tony Pollard has emerged as the better option since the first meeting, and I expect Dallas to have more success running the ball this time around.  Pollard barely touched the ball in the Week 1 meeting because Dallas was still allowing Ezekiel Elliott to fail as the top option.  Since, it’s become clear that Pollard is the more dynamic rusher and I expect a totally different game plan from the Cowboys here.  When Dallas has been able to get Pollard going their offense has been elite, the Cowboys should have Center Tyler Biadasz back for this game and I expect an all around better effort from the Cowboys with their season on the line. 

The Bucs are not a playoff caliber football team and the reason they are here is because there’s still this ridiculous rule that winning your division should qualify you for the playoffs (even if you have a worse record than another team in the league).  The Bucs also inexplicably get a home game for that same reason and, since people love them some Tom Brady, the Bucs are being priced as a team with a legitimate chance here.  I don’t think that’s the case, I think we see the Cowboys silence this crowd similar to the way the Chargers did the Jaguars on Saturday except this one won’t have the historic comeback.  The Bucs have underwhelmed all season and a first round exit will be fitting for this very overrated Tampa Bay team.  Play on Cowboys -2.5 (-110) for 5% (or 5 units)