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 USE COUPON CODE: MMA150 FOR $150 OFF MY YEAR LONG PACKAGE!!!

In a main card bout, Puna Soriano faces Roman Kopylov…

First I wanna say it's nice seeing you all again. Now pull up a chair, grab your favorite tequila and lets get down to business. 

This fight could be a strikers delight mostly playing out on the feet. Both men posses good hands and appear that's where the action takes place. But… when capping this fight there's an absolute clear advantage Puna can capitalize on elsewhere. Since entering the UFC Puna's 3-2 over 5 appearances with all 3 wins coming by way of knockout. No doubt he has one punch KO power and has been relying on the nuclear option for the dubs. Where Soriano can expose Kopylov's weakness is taking the fight to the mat. Now I know I know,… I can already hear some of you saying “But Kyle why would he do that?” Well thank you for asking… it's due to Puna's high level grappling ability most overlook. Although he's fallen in love with his hands, Puna's a Division 3 All-American wrestler and fully put skills on display recently against BJJ specialist Nick Maximov. Although Puna lost via split decision, I thought his ground game looked absolutely fantastic! Slick transitions, reversals out of bad positions and quick to his feet scrambles. Very impressive against someone like Nick who has high level BJJ. Since signing with the UFC the only guys able to defeat Soriano were both grapplers. Nick Maximov and Brendan Allen. On Saturday night Puna will be the one with a massive grappling advantage which provides another threat and good chance of pace option. Some have knocked Puna's cardio but I believe he's cleaned that up. Going 3 hard rounds with Nick which was basically a 3 round grueling wrestling match showed his improves gas tank. While not only does Kopylov's cardio shown recently to decline even in low volume bouts, but off his back he's more lost than last years Easter Eggs. Opponents with limited grappling were able to control from top position easily keeping Roman on his back. Even Karl Roberson, a kickboxer was able to submit him. Not to mention Roman's last win came against Alessio Di Chirico who's 1-5 in last 6 UFC appearances, which Kopylov could have been losing heading into round 3. Yes Kopylov won via KO in round 3 but having a close bout against Di Chirico is a baaaad look. Add in the fact that at times Roman can be very low volume allowing opponents to dictate pace. Truly believe these laps in action will allow the quicker more powerful combinations to land for Puna as well as windows to level change if needed. Believe anywhere this fight goes Puna can KO Roman or dominate the grappling exchanges getting his hand raised. 

With implied probability of nearly 60%, I'd absolutely cap Puna's chances to win much higher. Love the price and paths to victory in this spot warranting a Best Bet wager. 

4% Best Bet: Puna Soriano (-150)