Recent Play Details

4% Run Line Cincinnati (8:10 ET): Milwaukee was just shockingly swept in Pittsburgh including B2B losses where the revamped bullpen let them down. The expectation for this weekend, when the Brew Crew are back home, is that they will bounce back against the Reds, a team that has been at the bottom of the NL Central most of this season. But the road team has revenge from a prior sweep AND the benefit of having had Thursday off. I think the “stars align” here for a potential upset and will take the Reds +1.5 on the run line.

Cincy had won four in a row before getting blanked in Miami Wednesday. That was just the sixth time all year that they’d been shutout. They were also facing Sandy Alcantara, who has the most complete games of any starter in baseball. Tonight, they’ll be against Eric Lauer, whom they scored four times against (in 6 ⅓ IP) the lone time they faced him in ‘22, what turned out to be a one-run loss (but that’s a result we’ll take here). Lauer isn’t having a particularly great year and has a 4.06 ERA his L7 starts, which doesn’t even include him giving up eight runs at Washington on 6/11. Plus, the Brewers’ bullpen now appears to be in disarray without Josh Hader. 

Milwaukee has fallen into a first place tie with St. Louis. Compared to the Cardinals, the Brewers have had an inferior run differential all season, which I take to mean they haven’t been nearly as dominant and thus I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see the Cards steal the NL Central. Meanwhile, I think the Reds could finish third in this division, ahead of both the Cubs and Pirates. I realize that Robert Dugger getting the starting nod for the Reds here may not inspire a ton of confidence (he’s helping to fill the void left by the Castillo and Mahle trades), but the road team is a live dog in this situation as the Brewers are definitely floundering at the moment. 4% Run Line Cincinnati (+1.5)