Recent Play Details

4:07 PM ET -- MLB

Game: (963) Oakland Athletics at (964) Los Angeles Angels

Play: FIRST 5 INNINGS UNDER 4.5 (-120)

List Pitchers: Blackburn & Junk

Bet Size: 3%

Line Parameters:
3% play at 4.5 or better
2% play at 4

My MLB totals plays are determined by a combination of statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games  (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by a combination of how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

Trends/Angles/Thoughts:

-> OAKLAND has scored 3 runs or less in 4 straight games and has had more than 8 hits only once in its last 7 games.

-> LA has scored 3 runs or less in 5 of its last 6 games, averaging just 6.2 hits.

-> BLACKBURN tossed 5 shutout innings at the White Sox in his last start and owns a 1.74 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 12 road starts this season.

-> BLACKBURN allowed 3 runs in 11 1/3 innings against the Angels this season.

-> JUNK pitched 5 scoreless innings at KC in his first start of the season last week.

-> OAKLAND is 15-5 UNDER after 2 straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs this season.

-> LA ANGELS are 13-3 UNDER vs. teams outscored by 1 or more runs/game on the season this season.