Recent Play Details

Play OVER the TOTAL of 4.5 runs in the First Five/1stHalf (First Five Total is good to 4.5 runs)
3% confidence rating
List Pitchers Kuhl and Snell
HP Umpire: Ryan Blakney reportedly receives the home plate assignment tonight at Petco. Blakney grades out as pitcher-friendly. Neither of tonight's two starters nibbles at the black, they are either good, or they aren't. I am not suggesting that Blakney can't assist on a call that might be a ball, and Ryan calls it a strike, but this isn't a matchup that depends on the umpire to be a big part of the desired result. 
Weather: The forecast at Petco calls for early August summer weather in Diego. First-pitch temps are expected to be in the high-70s with no precip and a light wind blowing from the left-field to right-field corner.

On the weekly shows I take part in, if I have mentioned it once, I have to spit it out 100 times; the Padres team's average exit velocity off the bat is one of the softest in baseball. Nevertheless, the trade deadline purchase of Soto, Bell, and company has assisted the Padre's chance of being a live participant in the Fall Classic tournament in October.

Tonight Petco will be jumping with a sold-out stadium and former Cy Young-winning Blake Snell setting the table for the San Diego offense to grind runs out while Snell and his 'mates behind him contain the Colorado Rockies.

Snell vs. Kuhl is not a walk in the park like the money line suggests. The Rockies do their best offensive work against left-handers. The Roks dichotomy regarding batting average runs scored and most every surface stat speaks to this Colorado potential when facing a left-handed pitcher, a starter in tonight's show.

Snell has surrendered four-plus runs in a handful of his 12 starts this season. Two of those poor showings by the Padres left-hander came against Colorado. Note that both of those appearances were in Denver at Coors, but all things equal, Snell has had no luck this year, and his BABIP and Strand Rate speak to his timing.

He allowed four or more runs in four of his 12 starts, with two coming against the Rockies, albeit both at Coors Field.

The Padres will have their opportunities tonight against Kuhl, early and often. Colorado will also have a chance of five, especially if Snell is chasing his tail and working from behind in the count.

Kuhl doesn't offer much in the way of attributes to pimp. His walk and strikeout rates are below league average, and his quality of contact by opponents is over 40 percent in all his July starts. So let me pour salt on Kuhl's wounds and speak to his Hard Hit percentage of over 50 percent in three of his last four turns.

50% in three of his last four, including nine barrels allowed in that span. He's simply not locating well, and there's no reason to believe that will change tonight.

Let the runs begin.

ROCKIES AND PADRES OVER the TOTAL of 4.5 runs (First Five)