Recent Play Details

3% Take Jacksonville (#102)

Here are two of my preseason “rules”; both of which I talked about on my NFL Opening Line Report show (every Monday 10 Pacific/1 PM Eastern Wagertalk TV on Youtube):  1) If you’re laying points, there needs to be a ‘bet-on’ and a ‘bet against’; not just one.  2) “Cluster injuries at any position = bet against.”       

This line was sitting at pick ‘em on Tuesday before it was announced that QB Trevor Lawrence and RB Travis Ettiene were going to be sitting for the Jaguars.  Now we’re getting +2.5.  Remember, in preseason no coach plays for overtime, which means that ‘3’ is NOT the ‘key number’ in August, with multiple games every week decided by one or two points. At +2.5 in August, we ARE getting the key numbers of +1 and +2.  It’s not like Lawrence was going to play more than one series anyway, and it’s not like the Raiders starters are going to play much either, if at all.  There’s no ‘bet-against’ for Jacksonville here, even with Lawrence sitting.

And there’s no ‘bet-on’ for the Raiders either.  The headline in the Las Vegas Sun on Wednesday morning: “Banged Up Raiders Mum on Playing Time for Preseason Opener”.  The Raiders have cluster injuries in camp on the offensive line.  They have major injury issues already on the defensive line. Head coach Josh McDaniels has made it clear that he’s sitting anyone with any injury on Thursday Night; leaving this team VERY vulnerable in the trenches.  McDaniels also made it clear that he’s not worried about this game one iota; knowing that Las Vegas still has three more preseason games to work out the kinks.   Las Vegas is a false favorite here, but take the points, not the moneyline!  Take the Jaguars.

Line Parameter: 3% at +2 or higher, 2% at +1.5 or lower