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4% Texas (2:05 ET): OK, let’s try this again. The Rangers seemingly have trouble beating certain teams. They are 0-7 their L7 head to head meetings with the Mariners. Now, after a 8-2 loss on Tuesday, they are 0-5 their L5 games vs. Baltimore. It was also their sixth straight home loss, a record since Globe Life Park opened two years ago. But I remain steadfast that the Rangers, who are better than their record shows, are due to get revenge against the Orioles and you should take them again this afternoon (despite what’s happened the L2 days). 

With the loss yday, Texas is now 11 games below .500. But they’ve both scored and allowed 464 runs this season, so you’d expect them to be a .500 team, just like the Orioles. In fact, no team has underperformed its expected win total more than the Rangers. That discrepancy is (mostly) owed to an incredibly unfortunate 5-23 record in one-run games. But eventually, that luck has to balance out. Meanwhile, Baltimore has been trading away key players in recent days - despite being two games over .500 for the first time this late in the season since September of 2017. Fangraphs actually now has the Orioles’ projected to have the worst win percentage in the American League the rest of the way! 

Texas has not gotten good outings from its starting pitching in this series, but that should change today with All-Star Martin Perez on the bump. The southpaw has been THE most profitable starter to bet on in all of MLB this season (+11.3 units) with a 15-5 team start record. He’s won nine consecutive decisions and since the Break has posted B2B quality starts where he’s given up just two runs and seven hits in 14 IP. Baltimore will be turning to Kyle Bradish on Wednesday. Bradish did pitch relatively well last week after being recalled from Triple-A Norfolk, but still has a 7.01 ERA and 1.695 WHIP in 11 starts this season. The Rangers’ lineup actually had more hits than the O’s did yesterday. 4% Texas