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Hanwha Eagles (5:30AM ET Naver TV) – The Cubs fall short on our only play on Sunday but it was an excellent week highlighted by a big 5% MAX BET win streak and we will look to maintain our excellent form into August as we head back to KBO where the Hanwha Eagles kick off a three game set with the Kia Tigers at Hanwha Life Eagles Park in Daejeon, South Korea. 

My biggest “take” entering the second half was that Hanwha was going to be massively undervalued and a great bet against the +1.5 and that’s absolutely been the case.  Hanwha has played eight games since the All-Star Break, two of them we cashed 5% MAX BET winners (against KT and Samsung) and their other games against those two teams were all competitive games where they were right in the game in the 9th inning.  Over the weekend they took a lead into the 9th inning against Doosan (their only meltdown of the 2nd half so far) and bounced back with a 11-1 win on Saturday. Hanwha was one of the six teams rained out on Sunday which means two games of rest for their bullpen and starter Min-Je Jang didn’t have to pitch 2x last week.  Kia did have to play on Sunday and it was another max effort game in what was a “max effort” series against SSG.  This screams letdown spot for Kia and I’ll take my chances that Hanwha can once again cash a ticket with a run head start here.

Since Hanwha was rained out on Sunday it means vital extra rest for starting pitcher Min-Je Jang.  The Korean born pitchers tend to struggle with having to make two starts in the same week, last week would have been Jang’s turn to do it but now he gets to make his start in this game on extra rest.  The veteran Jang has been nothing short of outstanding this season, Hanwha had to put the 32 year old in the rotation out of necessity earlier this year and the career reliever has flourished as a starting pitcher for the Eagles.  Jang got the win last time out against Samsung and has now made six consecutive starts where he’s gone at least five innings and conceded two runs or less.  The only time Hanwha’s bullpen has been blown up since the All-Star break was last Friday and that followed a 12 inning tie so this unit has been better and I’m less worried about a meltdown off of two days rest.  Kia is an excellent offensive team that’s been racking up hits but their overall power numbers are down in the second half so far and that probably has to do with Socrates Brito being out of the lineup.  Jang has done an outstanding job at working around baserunners and I like him to limit a Kia team that has barely seen him this year.

Kia counters with Sean Nolin, he returned from injury last week to make his first start in over two months and went just four innings in a no decision against NC. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Nolin is still on a pitch count which creates some underlying value for Hanwha since Kia’s bullpen logged a ton of work on Saturday and Sunday and it’s the main weakness of this Kia team.  Kia’s bullpen has been a lot better of late but the issue for the Tigers is their bullpen isn’t deep so when the top bullpen guys have to eat up innings Kia’s relief unit tends to get hit.  Kia had the off day yesterday but had many high leverage spots on Saturday and Sunday against SSG so I still think it’s possible the Tigers have some general fatigue here. It’s also the consummate letdown spot for Kia, they just played a grueling series with the #1 team in KBO and now have to hit the road to play the “worst” team in KBO.  Hanwha was quietly been turning in great efforts night in and night out so far in the second half and I fully expect that to be the case again here.

Hanwha when they are getting +1.5 at a fair price (basically anything -125 or less) is pretty much an auto bet for me at this point.  I think Hanwha are way undervalued, this is a tough road spot for Kia and I’ll ask the Eagles to either pull the upset or at least keep it within a run.  Play on Hanwha Eagles +1.5 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)